MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stewart out at third. → win prob 29→38% KC

BOT 8THTied

23-38

CIN

31-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 981 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 82-22 outs

Pitcher· KC

D. Lynch IV

0.2 IP, 1 K, 0 ER

Batter· CIN

E. Suarez

0-3, 1 K

Live · model leanBot 8thPolls every 30s

54.6%

CIN wins · current

Pre-game: 61.4% CIN

KC 2 · 2 CIN

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsCIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchKCBottom 6th Inning · 2-2
+8pp→ 38% WP
Lowe · grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stewart out at third.
Lead flipCINBottom 5th Inning · 2-2
+30pp→ 59% WP
Dunn · homered to left (368 feet), McLain scored.
Lead flipCINBottom 3rd Inning · 2-0
+8pp→ 51% WP
Dunn · singled to right, Stephenson to third.
Lead flipKCTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 52% WP
Pasquantino · homered to right (377 feet), Witt Jr. scored.

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.44

S. Kolek

3-1 · 3.48 ERA

C. Burns

7-1 · 1.96 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CIN no-vig %

58.4%

open 55.1% · +3.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.2%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
60.4%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.3%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.7%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

59.0%

-1.4ppvs pre-game · CIN favored

Calibrated · at ~55% reads, home has won 54% (433)

Leverage

±12.4

pp · next play

peak · 94/100

Tied · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.31

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-136

Close price

-157

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

58.4%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+28.7pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

no live price

CIN

★ best

+187DraftKings

edge +28.7pp · implied 32.7%

Book	KC	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-253	+187★	+28.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

CIN vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 3.8low
Michael WachaKC
5.5± 1.8low
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.3low

Hits

JJ BledayCIN
1.1± 1.1high
Maikel GarciaKC
1.1± 0.8high
Spencer SteerCIN
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

JJ BledayCIN
2.4± 2.2high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
1.9± 2.0high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

JJ BledayCIN
0.8± 0.8high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
0.7± 1.0high
Carter JensenKC
0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackCIN
3.5± 3.4low
Brady SingerCIN
3.2± 1.8low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

Royals

25-40

vs61.4%CIN

CIN★

Reds

37-31

KC 38.6%win prob61.4% CIN

CIN 1504 · KC 1454Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Jensen★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	6.5
B. Witt Jr.★SS	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1.0
SPRINT30.399+
V. Pasquantino★1B	2-4	4	1	2	2	1	0	0	13.1
SPRINT25.411
S. Perez★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	7.1
SPRINT241
J. Caglianone★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	2	3.9
SPRINT27.148
I. Collins★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	8.8
M. Massey★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	5.9
SPRINT26.838
N. Loftin★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.3
K. Isbel★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.8
L. ThomasCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.0
Team	5-30	30	2	5	2	1	1	11	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Jensen★C

0-4

6.5

B. Witt Jr.★SS

0-3

1.0

V. Pasquantino★1B

2-4

13.1

S. Perez★C

1-4

7.1

J. Caglianone★RF

1-3

3.9

I. Collins★LF

0-3

8.8

M. Massey★2B

1-3

5.9

N. Loftin★2B

0-3

4.3

K. Isbel★CF

0-2

0.8

L. ThomasCF

0-1

1.0

Team

5-30

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
S. Kolek★SP	7.0	6	2	2	2	8	1	8.5
D. Lynch IVRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	4.7
Team	7.2	7	2	2	2	9	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

S. Kolek★SP

7.0

8.5

D. Lynch IVRP

0.2

4.7

Team

7.2

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
B. Dunn★RF	2-4	4	1	2	2	1	0	0	18.7
J. Bleday★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2	15.8
SPRINT27.457
S. Stewart★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	3	15.3
SPRINT26.530
N. Lowe★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	18.6
E. Suarez★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	7.8
S. Steer★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	9.8
W. Benson★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	11.6
T. Stephenson★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	19.1
M. McLain★2B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	25.5
SPRINT28.586
D. MyersCF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	4.3
SPRINT2744
Team	7-29	29	2	7	2	1	2	9	—

Batting

Analytics

Player