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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5KC
SEA

SEA

25-28

0
5
KC

KC

21-31

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
25,544 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

KC no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

+2.0+1.0KC SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL47.7%39.7%KC NO-VIG %May 22, 7 PMMay 23, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

SEA 0 · KC 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000000000
KC301001005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 28, 26sim 97
    142
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 95
    122
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 95
    124
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 95
    234
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    232
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 94
    94
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.01

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1/VegasSEA -131

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Seattle Mariners, 5–0.

KC +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Luke Raley

Luke Raley

RF

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Carter Jensen

Carter Jensen

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA25-28
0
5
KC21-31
SEA25-28·KC21-31
SEA

SEA

25-28

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT25.513
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-33000010
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-33000000
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-33000000
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
3-33030000
SPRINT28.175
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.662
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-33000001
J. PeredaJ. Pereda★C
0-33000000
C. EmersonC. Emerson★3B
0-33000001
Team4-2828040012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
6.0953030
A. HoppeA. HoppeRP
1.0000000
N. DavilaN. DavilaRP
1.0000210
Team8.0953240
KC

KC

21-31

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-44220000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44111000
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000000
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
1-22112010
SPRINT27.457
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-44011002
SPRINT27.148
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-33011011
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
2-44020000
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-33000000
Team9-3232595024
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. KolekS. Kolek★SP
9.0400120
Team9.0400120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • G. Kirby
    92 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      34%·87.4 mph·15% whiff
    • FF
      26%·96.5 mph·18% whiff
    • KC
      21%·84.5 mph·18% whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      8%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      2%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Davila
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      67%·87.5 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Hoppe
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·97.2 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • S. Kolek
    108 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      33%·93.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.1 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.5 mph·9% whiff
    • ST
      11%·79.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.7 mph·40% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

9

0

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

May 22SEASEA2@KCKC0
May 23SEASEA0@KCKC5today
May 24SEASEA6@KCKC8

Season series

KC leads series 4-1

May 2KCKC7@SEASEA6
May 3KCKC3@SEASEA2
May 3KCKC4@SEASEA1
May 22SEASEA2@KCKC0
May 23SEASEA0@KCKC5today
May 24SEASEA6@KCKC8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SEASEA-13157%
KCKC+10848%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

SEASEA
L. Raley

L. Raley

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 9 H

KCKC
C. Jensen

C. Jensen

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

S. Kolek

S. Kolek

SP

Starting pitcherGem

9.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat SEA 5-0.

Win probability

KC vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 58% WP

Garcia · doubled to center.

KCBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 78% WP

Caglianone · singled to right, Pasquantino scored.

KCBottom 2nd Inning · 0-3
+12pp→ 83% WP

Massey · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000000000
KC30100100—5

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · KC won 3

0
3

Inn 1

Pasquantino 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Jensen 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Mariners 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SEA
KC

Play-by-play · 469 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  2. T9

    Rodríguez flied out to center.

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  5. T9

    Stephen Kolek pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  6. T9

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  7. T9

    Crawford lined out to left.

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  10. T9

    Stephen Kolek pitches to J.P. Crawford

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  11. T9

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  12. T9

    Emerson struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  21. T9

    Stephen Kolek pitches to Colt Emerson

    ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 0·KC 5

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SEA 0·KC 5

  24. B8

    · ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  25. B8

    Massey grounded out to first.

    · ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  28. B8

    Nick Davila pitches to Michael Massey

    · ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  29. B8

    · ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

  30. B8BB

    Jhonny Pereda challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Isaac Collins walks. Carter Jensen to 2nd.

    · ·

    SEA 0·KC 5

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

KC

Home

0

Runs

5

4

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

5

TB

10

0

HR

0

1

BB

2

2

K

4

8

LOB

15

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8·SEA -131/KC +108

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

KC vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.4high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    50.4%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.6%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.