MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Rafaela doubled to left. → win prob 44→53% BOS

BOT 4TH+1TOR

TOR

34-38

BOS

29-40

MLB · At bat

Bottom 40-02 outs

Pitcher· TOR

D. Cease

3.2 IP, 5 K, 0 ER

Batter· BOS

M. Mayer

0-1, 1 K

Live · model leanBot 4thPolls every 30s

54.0%

TOR wins · current

Pre-game: 54.7% BOS

TOR 1 · 0 BOS

TOR +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsBOS leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipBOSBottom 3rd Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 53% WP
Rafaela · doubled to left.
Lead flipTORTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 53% WP
Gim · énez doubled to center. Toronto Blue Jays challenged call on the field was overturned

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.61

D. Cease

3-3 · 2.91 ERA

P. Tolle

3-3 · 2.70 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

BOS no-vig %

47.8%

open 48.3% · -0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
54.8%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.1%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.6%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

20.4%

-34.4ppvs pre-game · TOR favored

Leverage

±6.8

pp · next play

medium · 44/100

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like BOS.

BOS's edge is driven by model confidence. Venue split keeps it from reading cleaner.

+6.9

pp edge · BOS

-0.44

CLV pp

2.3u · medium

on BOS

54.6%

±4.9pp band

2.3u medium — +4.6pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+6.8pp

-0.1pp post-cal

Kelly

9.2%

2.3% sized

Decimal

2.00

+4.6pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 6.9pp · BOS over TOR

▲
Model confidence90% conf
BOS clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Venue split64% conf
TOR's venue form trims BOS's edge by 9.5pp.
-0.5pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
TOR has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

Open price

-102

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.0pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

BOS

★ best

+179DraftKings

edge +21.0pp · implied 33.7%

Book	TOR	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	-240	+179★	+21.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

BOS vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.7± 3.7low

Hits

Willson ContrerasBOS
1.4± 1.3high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 0.9high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
3.0± 3.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.0± 2.5high
Ernie ClementTOR
2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.9± 1.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low
Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

BOS

.701

OPS

.717

.698

.314

OBP

.319

.314

4.03

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.97

4.11

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.90

1.28

WHIP

1.31

1.29

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

The One modelLean

Tue, Jun 16

TOR

Blue Jays

33-51

vs54.7%BOS

BOS★

Red Sox

29-50

TOR 45.3%win prob54.7% BOS

BOS 1469 · TOR 1459Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.208	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
E. Clement2B	.302	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.278	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. KirkC	.241	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Okamoto3B	.234	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. LukesRF	.306	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GimenezSS	.226	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.243	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		12	1	1	1	0	2	5

Player

.208

.302

.278

.241

.234

.306

.143

.226

.243

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CeaseSP	3.2	3	0	0	2	5	77
Team	3.1	3	0	0	2	5	77

Player

D. CeaseSP

3.2

Team

3.1

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. YoshidaDH	.243	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.292	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.278	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. Contreras1B	.301	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. DuranLF	.213	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.192	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.270	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Mayer2B	.221	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. WongC	.257	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		13	0	3	0	0	2	5