MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

22-35

PregameSat, 4:05 PM EDT

TEX

26-31

ATS/KC -1.5O/U/8ML/TEX-122

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

4-6

TEX +0.1 vs KC -3.4 margin

TEX brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 967 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

52.6%

open 53.2% · -0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Seth Lugo

SP · #67

2-4

W-L

3.74

ERA

1.38

WHIP

65.0

Last 3 starts

vsSEAW(2-4)6.1 IP3 ER3 K

vsBOSL(1-4)6.0 IP2 ER5 K

@CHWL(1-3)5.0 IP5 ER4 K

Home starter

Kumar Rocker

SP · #80

2-5

W-L

3.96

ERA

1.36

WHIP

50.0

Last 3 starts

vsHOUL(2-5)5.0 IP4 ER5 K

@COLW(2-4)7.2 IP0 ER7 K

vsARI-5.0 IP0 ER3 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money+102 / -122

Model edge

Win prob43% / 57%

LeanHome · 7pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesTEX leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take TEX on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-122Bet TEX ML↗-122Bet TEX ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

TEX vs KC.

TEX is 4-6 recently; KC is 2-8.

57.5%

model · TEX win prob

Recent form

TEX4–6+0.1
KC2–8-3.4

Situational

TEX1d restB2B
KC1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. TEX has 0 straight road games; KC has 1.

Model angle

+5.1ppon TEX

TEX's edge is mostly venue split plus model confidence. The signals lean the same way. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp
▲Venue split+2.9pp
▲Model confidence+1.8pp

Players to watch

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.7total bases · ±1.5
Bobby Witt Jr. · 1.7 TB · last-10 1.6 vs season 1.9.
Salvador PerezKC
1.7total bases · ±2.4
Salvador Perez · 1.7 TB · last-10 1.9 vs season 1.4.
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.7total bases · ±2.4
Brandon Nimmo · 1.7 TB · last-10 1.7 vs season 1.6.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

TEX is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-29KC @ TEX1–9

Line move

open -126→-122toward KC

The market has moved 0.8pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.5%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
57.7%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.4%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.1%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like TEX.

TEX's edge is mostly venue split plus model confidence. The signals lean the same way.

+5.1

pp edge · TEX

-0.60

CLV pp

1.4u · medium

on TEX

57.5%

±7.1pp band

1.42u medium — +2.5pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+4.9pp

-0.2pp post-cal

Kelly

5.7%

1.4% sized

Decimal

1.82

+2.5pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.1pp · TEX over KC

▲
Venue split64% conf
TEX's venue form is 40.3pp stronger in the recent sample.
+2.9pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
TEX grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+1.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
TEX has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.4pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Market faded the model

Player projections

TEX vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts