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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+14NYY
NYY

NYY

33-22

15
1
KC

KC

22-33

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
21,947 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

KC no-vig %

34.5%

open 35.5% · -1.0

+2.0+1.0KC SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.0TOTAL39.5%30.5%KC NO-VIG %MODEL 38.5%May 25, 9 PMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 15 · KC 1 (by 14)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY41401012215
KC0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 96
    307
    1(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    302
    1(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 93
    106
    21(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 93
    157
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 93
    1910
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 93
    1912
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.1pp

best edge · KC · DraftKings

NYY

no live price

KC

★ best
+163DraftKings

edge +2.1pp · implied 36.4%

BookNYYKCBest edge
DraftKings-199+163★+2.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-0/VegasNYY -199

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 15–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 14). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Amed Rosario

Amed Rosario

3B

2.333OPS

6-4

AB-H

3

R

4

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr.

SS

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY33-22
15
1
KC22-33
NYY33-22·KC22-33
NYY

NYY

33-22

15
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
3-77132100
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-33021020
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
2-55123100
SPRINT27.560
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
2-66120000
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
3-55331011
SPRINT26.941
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
4-66344200
SPRINT28.278
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-55221111
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
3-66332101
A. WellsA. Wells★C
3-66131002
J. CaballeroJ. CaballeroSS
0-11000000
Team24-5050152415655
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
6.0411061
R. YarbroughR. YarbroughRP
3.0200100
Team9.0611161
KC

KC

22-33

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-33000001
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-33111101
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-33000001
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
1-44010000
SPRINT27.457
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
2-33020010
SPRINT28.688
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-33000001
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-33000001
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11000000
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
0-11000000
M. MasseyM. Massey2B
0-11000000
I. CollinsI. CollinsLF
0-11000000
Team6-3333161116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. FalterB. Falter★RP
2.1977003
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
3.0733210
S. CruzS. CruzRP
1.2211141
E. MorganE. MorganRP
1.0322101
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
1.0322101
Team9.0241515556

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    77 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.9 mph·6% whiff
    • FC
      25%·93.4 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      25%·97.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      9%·84.3 mph·25% whiff
  • R. Yarbrough
    44 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      32%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·85.4 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      18%·71.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      14%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·79.0 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • L. Avila
    67 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      42%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.1 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      1%·82.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Falter
    45 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      40%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·82.1 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      16%·77.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      7%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Cruz
    39 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      49%·99.0 mph·30% whiff
    • FC
      41%·93.7 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      10%·89.8 mph·33% whiff
  • E. Morgan
    30 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      40%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·77.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·85.0 mph·40% whiff
  • T. Tolbert
    30 pitches·20% CSW
    • EP
      100%·47.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

24

Hits

6

15

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 3-0

May 25NYYNYY4@KCKC3
May 26NYYNYY15@KCKC1today
May 27NYYNYY7@KCKC0

Season series

NYY lead series 5-0

Apr 17KCKC2@NYYNYY4
Apr 18KCKC4@NYYNYY13
Apr 19KCKC0@NYYNYY7
May 25NYYNYY4@KCKC3
May 26NYYNYY15@KCKC1today
May 27NYYNYY7@KCKC0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 2.8h

Moneyline

NYYNYY-19967%
KCKC+16338%

↗8· 2.8h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 8pp · Top 1st Inning

NYYNYY
A. Rosario

A. Rosario

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-6 · 2 HR · 2.333 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H

KCKC
B. Witt Jr.

B. Witt Jr.

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

S. Cruz

S. Cruz

RP

Top reliever

1.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYY beat KC 15-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 77% WP

Bellinger · homered to right (387 feet).

NYYTop 1st Inning · 4-0
+8pp→ 92% WP

Rosario · homered to left center (420 feet), Rice scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY41401012215
KC0010000001

Period scoring

NYY won 7 · KC won 0

4
0

Inn 1

Rosario 2

1
0

Inn 2

Volpe 1

4
1

Inn 3

Bellinger 2

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Judge 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Grisham 1

2
0

Inn 8

Jr. 1

2
0

Inn 9

Rosario 2

NYY
KC

Play-by-play · 654 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 15·KC 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  3. B9

    Caglianone grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  6. B9

    Ryan Yarbrough pitches to Jac Caglianone

    · ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  7. B9

    · ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  8. B9

    Thomas reached on infield single to pitcher, Jensen to third.

    · ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  11. B9

    Ryan Yarbrough pitches to Lane Thomas

    · ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  12. B9

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  13. B9

    Jensen doubled to left.

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  20. B9

    Ryan Yarbrough pitches to Carter Jensen

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  21. B9

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  22. B9

    Collins grounded out to third.

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  28. B9

    Ryan Yarbrough pitches to Isaac Collins

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  29. B9

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

  30. B9

    Massey flied out to right.

    ·

    NYY 15·KC 1

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

KC

Home

15

Runs

1

24

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

46

TB

11

6

HR

1

5

BB

1

5

K

6

25

LOB

10

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8.5·NYY -199/KC +163

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.01

CLV pp

Open price

+169

Close price

+177

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

34.5%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

KC vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Stephen KolekKC
    2.4± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.4%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    37.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    33.2%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    35.7%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.