MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4KC

HOU

33-40

29-43

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

23,730 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

KC no-vig %

52.7%

open 52.2% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.1%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
47.9%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.8%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.7%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.53

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.1pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

HOU

★ best

+100DraftKings

edge +9.1pp · implied 47.8%

no live price

Book	HOU	KC	Best edge
DraftKings	+100★	-120	+9.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

KC vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.3± 3.2low
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.5± 1.3high
Kameron MisnerKC
1.3± 0.8low
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.6± 2.6high
Christian WalkerHOU
2.0± 1.5high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.0± 2.1high
Kameron MisnerKC
1.0± 1.4low
Christian WalkerHOU
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

.730

OPS

◀

.716

.695

.318

OBP

.319

.316

4.56

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.91

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.45

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.38

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

HOU 0 · KC 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
KC	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. PenaSS	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.326	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Walker1B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SmithRF	.218	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MeyersCF	.215	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MatthewsCF	.220	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
R. Delgado2B	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. PriceC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TrammellCF	.288	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. VazquezC	.224	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	5	0	0	1	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.271

.326

.247

.232

.218

.215

.220

.333

.167

.288

.224

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. ArrighettiSP	6.0	8	4	4	1	7	101
A. SantaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18
N. PearsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	14
Team	8.0	10	4	4	1	9	133

Player

S. ArrighettiSP

6.0

101

A. SantaRP

1.0

N. PearsonRP

1.0

Team

8.0

133

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. JensenC	.220	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.287	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.269	4	1	1	1	0	0	3
M. Garcia3B	.268	4	0	3	3	0	0	0
M. Massey2B	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. PerezC	.202	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. MisnerCF	.500	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
L. ThomasCF	.224	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. CollinsLF	.218	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
Team		32	4	10	4	0	1	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. KolekSP	7.1	5	0	0	1	4	97
S. CruzRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	9.0	5	0	0	1	5	113

Team

HOU

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

KC vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

KC vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.