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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1NYY
NYY

NYY

32-22

4
3
KC

KC

22-32

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
26,162 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

41.7%

open 43.7% · -1.9

+2.0+1.0KC SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL47.7%37.7%KC NO-VIG %MODEL 38.5%May 24, 3 PMMay 25, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 4 · KC 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0200000024
KC0100010103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.5pp

best edge · KC · DraftKings

NYY

no live price

KC

★ best
+212DraftKings

edge +8.5pp · implied 30.0%

BookNYYKCBest edge
DraftKings-299+212★+8.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Mon, May 25·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-0/VegasNYY -137

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

KC +1.5 cashed (NYY won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
J.C. Escarra

J.C. Escarra

C

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY32-22
4
3
KC22-32
NYY32-22·KC22-32
NYY

NYY

32-22

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-44000002
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-44010001
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-44000000
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT27.560
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
1-44010000
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-33110010
SPRINT28.175
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-33112012
J.C. EscarraJ.C. Escarra★C
3-44030000
SPRINT2622
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-44011000
SPRINT28.278
Team9-3434494126
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. WarrenW. Warren★SP
6.0322331
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
0.2100000
J. BirdJ. BirdRP
0.2111111
T. HillT. HillRP
0.2000010
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0000100
Team9.0533552
KC

KC

22-32

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-55010001
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-33211111
SPRINT241
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-44000001
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-22000011
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-33000010
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-11001000
SPRINT26.838
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-22000000
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11000000
N. LoftinN. Loftin2B
1-22010000
L. ThomasL. ThomasCF
0-11000010
Team5-3131353255
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
7.0522251
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
1.0000010
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0422000
Team9.0944261

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • W. Warren
    85 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      52%·93.1 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.3 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      16%·84.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.9 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Bird
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      37%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      32%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      26%·92.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      50%·91.5 mph·25% whiff
  • B. Headrick
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      100%·93.8 mph·25% whiff
  • T. Hill
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      80%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·89.7 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • M. Wacha
    93 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      26%·93.3 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      22%·80.5 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      17%·75.8 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      16%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      9%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      36%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      38%·86.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      38%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.9 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

5

4

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 3-0

May 25NYYNYY4@KCKC3today
May 26NYYNYY15@KCKC1
May 27NYYNYY7@KCKC0

Season series

NYY lead series 4-0

Apr 17KCKC2@NYYNYY4
Apr 18KCKC4@NYYNYY13
Apr 19KCKC0@NYYNYY7
May 25NYYNYY4@KCKC3today
May 26NYYNYY15@KCKC1
May 27NYYNYY7@KCKC0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY-13758%
KCKC+11447%

↗5· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 39pp · Top 9th Inning

NYYNYY
J.C. Escarra

J.C. Escarra

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

KCKC
S. Perez

S. Perez

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat KC 4-3. Volpe's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (39pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 6th Inning · 2-2
+18pp→ 50% WP

Perez · homered to left center (422 feet).

KCBottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+26pp→ 85% WP

Witt Jr. · homered to left (432 feet).

NYYTop 9th Inning · 4-3
+39pp→ 83% WP

Volpe · singled to left, Schuemann scored and Chisholm Jr. scored, Volpe thrown out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0200000024
KC0100010103

Period scoring

NYY won 2 · KC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

2
1

Inn 2

Bellinger 1

Massey 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Perez 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Jr. 1

2
0

Inn 9

Volpe 2

NYY
KC

Play-by-play · 521 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 4·KC 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  3. B9

    Garcia grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

    −9pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  6. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Maikel Garcia

    · ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  7. B9

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  8. B9

    Thomas walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

    +6pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  16. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Lane Thomas

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  17. B9

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  18. B9

    Loftin popped out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

    −6pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  20. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Nick Loftin

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  21. B9

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  22. B9

    Collins grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

    −7pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  27. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Isaac Collins

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  28. B9

    Bednar relieved Hill

    ·

    NYY 4·KC 3

  29. B9

    Schuemann in left field.

    NYY 4·KC 3

  30. B9

    Bellinger at first base.

    NYY 4·KC 3

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

KC

Home

4

Runs

3

9

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

14

TB

13

1

HR

2

2

BB

5

6

K

5

9

LOB

11

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8.5·NYY -137/KC +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.20

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 27, 26sim 97
    107
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 96
    301
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    150
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 94
    303
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 94
    105
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 93
    100
    1(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

KC vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Stephen KolekKC
    2.4± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    37.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    35.7%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.