Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at KC?

The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — May 25, 2026

FINAL+1NYY

NYY

32-22

22-32

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

26,162 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

41.7%

open 43.7% · -1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

30.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
37.7%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.4%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.2%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.20

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at KC?: The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.2pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

-137DraftKings

edge +15.2pp · implied 55.3%

no live price

Book	NYY	KC	Best edge
DraftKings	-137★	+114	+15.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

KC vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.8± 2.6high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.6± 1.8high

Hits

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.2± 1.0high
Salvador PerezKC
1.0± 0.7high
Heliot RamosNYY
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.5± 2.8high
Salvador PerezKC
1.9± 1.5high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.6± 1.8high

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.6low
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.3high
Will WarrenNYY
2.5± 2.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

.722

OPS

◀

.720

.711

.309

OBP

.318

▶

.313

4.57

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.17

3.34

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.85

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.43

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 4 · KC 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4
KC	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.192	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. JudgeRF	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Rice1B	.276	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. BellingerLF	.274	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.242	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. VolpeSS	.231	3	1	1	2	0	1	2
J.C. EscarraC	.200	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
J. CaballeroSS	.260	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. SchuemannLF	.286	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	9	4	1	2	6

Player

.192

.250

.276

.274

.250

.242

.231

.200

.260

.286

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. WarrenSP	6.0	3	2	2	3	3	85
B. HeadrickRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	8
J. BirdRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	1	19
T. HillRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	5
D. BednarRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
Team	9.0	5	3	3	5	5	131

Player

6.0

0.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Garcia3B	.262	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.294	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.201	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
S. PerezDH	.215	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
C. JensenC	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.239	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
I. CollinsLF	.218	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Massey2B	.225	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
K. IsbelCF	.256	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TolbertSS	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. MarteRF	.288	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. ErcegRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Loftin3B	.232	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. ThomasCF	.207	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	3	5	3	2	5	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WachaSP	7.0	5	2	2	2	5	93
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
L. ErcegRP	1.0	4	2	2	0	0	14
Team	9.0	9	4	4	2	6	115

Team

NYY

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

KC vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

KC vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.