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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+13CHW
MIN

MIN

27-29

2
15
CHW

CHW

28-27

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
14,796 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

CHW no-vig %

53.1%

open 54.2% · -1.1

+2.0-0.5CHW SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL58.2%48.5%CHW NO-VIG %MODEL 55.9%May 26, 6 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

MIN 2 · CHW 15 (by 13)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHW +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN1000000102
CHW0210515115

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.7pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

MIN

no live price

CHW

★ best
+117DraftKings

edge +12.7pp · implied 43.2%

BookMINCHWBest edge
DraftKings-153+117★+12.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 19, 26sim 96
    236
    24(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 94
    177
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 93
    187
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 93
    186
    12(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 93
    2411
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 92
    201
    17(H)15
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesCHW win series 3-1/VegasCHW -110

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Minnesota Twins, 15–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHW +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 9.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton

CF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Tristan Peters

Tristan Peters

CF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN27-29
2
15
CHW28-27
MIN27-29·CHW28-27
MIN

MIN

27-29

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-33111100
SPRINT29.597
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-33000001
SPRINT26.428
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-44000001
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000001
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-33111100
SPRINT27.457
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-22000000
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.688
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
0-33000000
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
0-33000002
O. ArciaO. ArciaSS
0-11000000
R. KreidlerR. KreidlerCF
0-11000000
J. OutmanJ. OutmanCF
0-11000000
Team3-3030232205
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PrielippC. Prielipp★SP
4.1866350
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
1.2533010
T. AdamsT. AdamsRP
1.0455222
O. ArciaO. ArciaSS
1.0111200
Team8.0181515782
CHW

CHW

28-27

15
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
2-55124110
SPRINT2744
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
2-44321111
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-33210022
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
3-55132001
SPRINT26.735
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
2-55121001
E. QueroE. Quero★C
2-33321010
SPRINT24.12
D. HillD. Hill★RF
0-11000001
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
3-44233011
SPRINT28.175
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
1-55011001
T. PetersT. PetersCF
2-22220010
Team18-3737151813278
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. SandlinD. Sandlin★SP
6.0111041
B. EisertB. EisertRP
2.0211011
T. RichardsT. RichardsRP
1.0000000
Team9.0322052

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • C. Prielipp
    93 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      24%·96.0 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.1 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      19%·86.5 mph·9% whiff
    • CU
      19%·82.5 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Adams
    33 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      27%·85.8 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      24%·87.3 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      24%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.9 mph·— whiff
  • E. Orze
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • FS
      45%·83.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Arcia
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • CU
      57%·46.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·55.2 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • D. Sandlin
    61 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.7 mph·8% whiff
    • CU
      30%·82.9 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      11%·91.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      7%·92.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      5%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    29 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      59%·89.0 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      24%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Richards
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      100%·92.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

18

2

Runs

15

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 3-1

May 25MINMIN1@CHWCHW3
May 26MINMIN5@CHWCHW3
May 27MINMIN2@CHWCHW15today
May 28MINMIN2@CHWCHW6

Season series

CHW lead series 2-1

May 25MINMIN1@CHWCHW3
May 26MINMIN5@CHWCHW3
May 27MINMIN2@CHWCHW15today
May 28MINMIN2@CHWCHW6
Jun 1CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Jun 2CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Jun 3CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Aug 29CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Aug 29CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Aug 30CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Sep 4MINMIN@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 5MINMIN@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 6MINMIN@CHWCHWupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6h

Moneyline

MINMIN-11052%
CHWCHW-11052%

↗6· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

MINMIN
B. Buxton

B. Buxton

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

C. Prielipp

C. Prielipp

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

CHWCHW
T. Peters

T. Peters

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

D. Sandlin

D. Sandlin

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 1 H

How it ended

CHW beat MIN 15-2.

Win probability

CHW vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 2nd Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 65% WP

Antonacci · singled to center, Montgomery scored and Quero scored.

CHWBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+7pp→ 77% WP

Montgomery · doubled to center, Vargas scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN1000000102
CHW02105151—15

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · CHW won 5

1
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Antonacci 2

0
1

Inn 3

Montgomery 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
5

Inn 5

Antonacci 2

0
1

Inn 6

Grichuk 1

0
5

Inn 7

Meidroth 4

1
1

Inn 8

Clemens 1

Acu 1

0

Inn 9

MIN
CHW

Play-by-play · 543 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  2. T9

    Larnach flied out to center.

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  4. T9

    Trevor Richards pitches to Trevor Larnach

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  5. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  6. T9

    Kreidler lined out to center.

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  9. T9

    Trevor Richards pitches to Ryan Kreidler

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  10. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  11. T9

    Arcia flied out to left.

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  13. T9

    Trevor Richards pitches to Orlando Arcia

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  14. T9

    Richards relieved Eisert

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  15. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  16. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  17. B8

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  18. B8

    Meidroth grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  19. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  20. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  21. B8

    Orlando Arcia pitches to Chase Meidroth

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  22. B8

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  23. B8

    Acuña grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Quero scored, Antonacci out at second, Peters to third.

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  24. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  25. B8

    Orlando Arcia pitches to Luisangel Acuna

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 15

  26. B8

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 14

  27. B8

    Antonacci walked, Peters to second, Quero to third.

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 14

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 14

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 14

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 14

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

2

Runs

15

3

Hits

18

0

Errors

0

10

TB

25

2

HR

2

0

BB

7

5

K

8

2

LOB

21

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 8·MIN -110/CHW -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.11

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

53.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

CHW vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · CHW favored

  • Elo Static

    56.3%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.6%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.3%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.