MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Grichuk homered to left center (418 feet). → win prob 10→17% CHW

END 5TH+2PHI

CHW

33-29

PHI

33-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 971 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

End 50-00 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastEnd of the 5th inning

Live · model leanEnd 5thPolls every 30s

62.7%

PHI wins · current

Pre-game: 53.3% PHI

CHW 4 · 6 PHI

PHI +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsPHI leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCHWTop 5th Inning · 4-6
+6pp→ 17% WP
Grichuk · homered to left center (418 feet).
SwingPHITop 3rd Inning · 3-5
+7pp→ 83% WP
Montgomery · grounded out to first.
SwingPHIBottom 2nd Inning · 2-3
+6pp→ 78% WP
Turner · grounded into fielder's choice to first, García scored, Schwarber to second.
Lead flipPHIBottom 2nd Inning · 2-2
+19pp→ 65% WP
Marsh · homered to center (401 feet), Realmuto scored.
SwingCHWTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 48% WP
Acu · ña doubled to left, Antonacci scored.

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.07

A. Kay

5-1 · 3.77 ERA

J. Luzardo

4-4 · 4.30 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PHI no-vig %

62.2%

open 63.1% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
54.1%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.4%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.9%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

95.5%

+41.4ppvs pre-game · PHI favored

Leverage

±3.4

pp · next play

low · 13/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.13

CLV pp

Open price

+159

Close price

+158

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

37.0%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+29.8pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHW

★ best

+457DraftKings

edge +29.8pp · implied 16.9%

PHI

no live price

Book	CHW	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+457★	-770	+29.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

PHI vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.0± 3.2low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.2± 2.9low
Davis MartinCHW
6.1± 3.5low

Hits

Chase MeidrothCHW
1.2± 0.7high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 1.4high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.2± 1.8high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.9± 3.3high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.8± 1.3high

RBIs

Miguel VargasCHW
0.9± 1.5high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.7± 1.0high
Chase MeidrothCHW
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 2.6low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.2± 2.9low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.7± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

CHW

White Sox

40-29

vs53.3%PHI

PHI★

Phillies

39-36

CHW 46.7%win prob53.3% PHI

PHI 1523 · CHW 1519Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Meidroth★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.7
R. GrichukMulti-HR game★RF	2-3	3	2	2	2	2	0	0	0.3
SPRINT26.735
M. Vargas★3B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	2.6
SPRINT28.381
C. Montgomery★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	10.5
E. Quero★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.7
D. Hill★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.2
S. Antonacci★LF	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12.4
SPRINT28.175
L. Acuna★CF	2-2	2	1	2	1	0	0	0	23.1
SPRINT29.597
T. Peters★CF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	8.0
SPRINT28.586
Team	6-20	20	4	6	4	2	2	2	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Meidroth★2B

0-3

2.7

R. Grichuk★RF

2-3

0.3

M. Vargas★3B

1-1

2.6

C. Montgomery★SS

0-3

10.5

E. Quero★C

0-3

0.7

D. Hill★RF

0-2

3.2

S. Antonacci★LF

0-1

12.4

L. Acuna★CF

2-2

23.1

T. Peters★CF

1-2

8.0

Team

6-20

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
A. Kay★SP	4.0	7	6	6	2	4	2	36.6
T. DavisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1.1
Team	5.0	8	6	6	2	4	2	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

A. Kay★SP

4.0

36.6

T. DavisRP

1.0

1.1

Team

5.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
K. Schwarber★DH	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	1	10.9
SPRINT25.818
T. Turner★SS	0-3	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	1.5
SPRINT29.798
B. Harper★1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	1.9
A. Bohm★3B	2-3	3	0	2	2	0	0	1	2.9
SPRINT26.632
E. Sosa★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.1
J.T. Realmuto★C	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	21.7
B. Marsh★LF	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	0	0	18.1
SPRINT28.175
A. Garcia★RF	2-2	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	18.6
SPRINT26.735
S. Berroa★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	3.4
Team	8-22	22	6	8	6	2	2	4	—

Batting

Analytics

Player