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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHW
CHW

CHW

25-23

2
1
SEA

SEA

23-27

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
28,837 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.3%

-1.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL61.3%53.3%SEA NO-VIG %May 18, 10 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 2 · SEA 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0000000022
SEA1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.5pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHW

★ best
+199DraftKings

edge +17.5pp · implied 31.4%

SEA

no live price

BookCHWSEABest edge
DraftKings+199★-271+17.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 2-1/VegasSEA -137

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

CHW +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Tristan Peters

Tristan Peters

CF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW25-23
2
1
SEA23-27
CHW25-23·SEA23-27
CHW

CHW

25-23

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
0-44000000
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
0-22000022
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-33100002
SPRINT28.381
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000003
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44011002
SPRINT2744
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44011000
SPRINT26.632
J. KelenicJ. Kelenic★RF
1-33010002
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
1-33010011
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-33000001
L. AcunaL. AcunaCF
0-11000001
Team4-31312420314
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. KayA. Kay★SP
5.1111350
T. DavisT. DavisRP
1.2000140
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.0000010
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0000030
Team9.01114130
SEA

SEA

23-27

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-44000003
SPRINT26.326
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT28.688
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-33000001
SPRINT26.941
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-33000011
SPRINT23.81
P. WisdomP. Wisdom★3B
0-33001000
C. JoeC. Joe★RF
0-22000011
M. GarverM. Garver★C
0-22000011
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-22000011
C. EmersonC. Emerson★3B
0-22000002
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. CrawfordSS
0-11000001
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-11000001
D. CanzoneD. CanzoneDH
0-11000001
Team1-28281110413
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. MillerB. Miller★SP
5.2100170
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
0.1000010
L. CastilloL. CastilloSP
2.1122240
A. MunozA. MunozRP
0.2200020
Team9.04223140

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

1

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 2-1

May 19CHWCHW1@SEASEA6
May 20CHWCHW2@SEASEA1today
May 20CHWCHW4@SEASEA5

Season series

CHW lead series 3-2

May 8SEASEA12@CHWCHW8
May 9SEASEA1@CHWCHW6
May 10SEASEA1@CHWCHW2
May 19CHWCHW1@SEASEA6
May 20CHWCHW2@SEASEA1today
May 20CHWCHW4@SEASEA5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+11447%
SEASEA-13758%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 44pp · Top 9th Inning

CHWCHW
T. Peters

T. Peters

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

A. Kay

A. Kay

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
J. Rodriguez

J. Rodriguez

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 R · 0.500 OPS

B. Miller

B. Miller

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHW beat SEA 2-1. Meidroth's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (44pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SEA vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 6th Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 34% WP

Peters · doubled to right.

CHWTop 9th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 27% WP

Murakami · walked.

CHWTop 9th Inning · 1-1
+44pp→ 68% WP

Meidroth · singled to right, Hill scored, Meidroth to second, Vargas to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0000000022
SEA1000000001

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · SEA won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Wisdom 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Meidroth 1

CHW
SEA

Play-by-play · 550 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  3. B9

    Canzone struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  8. B9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Dominic Canzone

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  9. B9

    Canzone hit for Garver

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  10. B9

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  11. B9

    Raley struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

    −7pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  16. B9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Luke Raley

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  17. B9

    Raley hit for Joe

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  18. B9

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  19. B9

    Crawford struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

    −9pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  25. B9

    Grant Taylor pitches to J.P. Crawford

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  26. B9

    Taylor relieved Hudson

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  27. B9

    Crawford hit for Wisdom

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  28. B9

    Meidroth at shortstop.

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  29. B9

    Montgomery at third base.

    CHW 2·SEA 1

  30. B9

    Vargas at first base.

    CHW 2·SEA 1

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

2

Runs

1

4

Hits

1

0

Errors

0

5

TB

1

0

HR

0

3

BB

4

14

K

13

15

LOB

14

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8·CHW +114/SEA -137

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.98

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

42.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

SEA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    2.5± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.0%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    53.2%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.2%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.1%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 26, 26sim 95
    112
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    121
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    172
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 95
    41
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 94
    91
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 94
    60
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175