Starter edge
2.41 ERA
Davis Martin vs Gerrit Cole - 2.45 ERA
Martin owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving CHW cleaner opening script tonight.
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Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees
CHW
CHW
38-32
PregameTue, 7:05 PM EDT
NYY
NYY
43-27
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 4.86
D. Martin
9-2 · 2.41 ERA
vs
G. Cole
1-1 · 2.45 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Line movement
200 snapshots
NYY spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
NYY no-vig %
56.3%
open 56.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Davis Martin
SP · #65
9-2
W-L
2.41
ERA
1.10
WHIP
79
K
78.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsATLW(9-2)6.0 IP0 ER6 K
@MINL(8-2)4.2 IP6 ER2 K
vsMINW(8-1)6.0 IP1 ER5 K
Home starter
Gerrit Cole
SP · #45
1-1
W-L
2.45
ERA
1.05
WHIP
18
K
22.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@CLE-4.0 IP2 ER4 K
vsCLEL(1-1)5.1 IP4 ER2 K
@KCW(1-0)6.2 IP0 ER10 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8
Money+124 / -149
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
No prior meetings logged this season yet.
Place a bet
Take NYY on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
CHW
- 1.S. AntonacciLF
- 2.M. Vargas3B
- 3.A. BenintendiDH
- 4.C. MontgomerySS
- 5.B. MontgomeryRF
- 6.C. Meidroth2B
- 7.J. Gonzalez1B
- 8.T. PetersCF
- 9.D. RomoC
NYY
- 1.B. Rice1B
- 2.C. BellingerLF
- 3.P. GoldschmidtDH
- 4.J. Chisholm Jr.2B
- 5.S. JonesCF
- 6.J. CaballeroRF
- 7.R. McMahon3B
- 8.J.C. EscarraC
- 9.A. VolpeSS
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs CHW.
NYY is 7-3 recently; CHW is 6-4.
63.0%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY7–3+1.4
- CHW6–4+0.7
Situational
- NYY2d rest
- CHW2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 6 straight road games; CHW has 0.
Model angle
+5.7ppon NYY
NYY's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
- ▲Model confidence+2.4pp
- ▲Venue split+1.6pp
Players to watch
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY2.0total bases · ±1.3
Paul Goldschmidt · 2 TB · last-10 2.1 vs season 1.8.
- Grant TaylorCHW1.9strikeouts · ±1.3
Grant Taylor · 1.9 K · last-10 1.8 vs season 1.9.
- Ben RiceNYY1.9total bases · ±2.0
Ben Rice · 1.9 TB · last-10 1.6 vs season 2.2.
Line move
open -143→-143flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.7%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
61.4%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.3%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.7%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.31 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 81 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Davis MartinCHW6.3± 3.1low
- Ryan WeathersNYY6.3± 3.9low
- Cam SchlittlerNYY6.2± 2.1medium
Hits
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.2± 0.8high
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY1.2± 0.8high
- Braden MontgomeryCHW1.0± 1.4low
Total bases
- Braden MontgomeryCHW2.0± 3.2low
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY2.0± 1.3high
- Ben RiceNYY1.9± 2.0high
RBIs
- Braden MontgomeryCHW0.8± 1.8low
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY0.8± 1.0high
- Cody BellingerNYY0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Ryan WeathersNYY3.0± 3.1low
- Anthony KayCHW2.5± 3.4low
- Erick FeddeCHW2.4± 3.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
NYY
.737
OPS
.717
▶.763
.325
OBP
.319
▶.330
4.76
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.11
4.29
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.32
1.32
WHIP
1.31
▶1.19
8.3
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One modelEdge
Tue, Jun 16CHW
White Sox
47-31
vs63.0%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
51-28
CHW 37.0%win prob63.0% NYY
NYY 1598 · CHW 1542Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
