Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at IND?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7ATL

ATL

10-4

108101

IND

9-6

WNBAThu, Jun 18FinalSeriesATL leads series 2-1VegasATL -1.5

ATL · top performer

Rhyne Howard

G · #10

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Kelsey Mitchell

G · #0

18.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 3:28

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	32	17	4-8	3-5	6-6	+4	4	2
A. ReeseF · #5	29	21	8-14	—	5-8	+8	11	1
A. GrayG · #15	34	17	6-11	1-3	4-5	+16	0	3
J. CanadaG · #3	29	18	5-10	1-3	7-8	+9	2	5
R. HowardG · #10	38	16	6-12	1-3	3-3	+4	5	6
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	5	3	1-1	—	1-4	-6	1	0
M. OkotC · #11	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	+3	4	1
T. PaopaoG · #2	14	7	3-5	1-2	—	-2	1	3
I. BorlaseG · #20	13	9	4-7	0-1	1-1	-1	2	0
Team		108	37-69	7-18	27-35		30	21
DNP: B. Jones, A. Nye, I. Nivar

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	13	6	2-3	—	2-2	-10	3	1
A. BostonC · #7	34	23	8-15	1-2	6-8	-2	8	3
K. MitchellG · #0	34	26	10-15	3-7	3-3	0	1	1
L. HullG · #10	11	2	1-2	—	—	-6	3	0
C. ClarkG · #22	31	26	8-17	2-5	8-12	-13	2	7
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	9	0	0-1	—	—	-3	1	0
M. TimpsonF · #21	21	6	2-3	—	2-2	+8	4	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	30	12	4-5	2-3	2-2	-7	2	2
T. HarrisG · #52	14	0	0-1	—	—	+3	2	2
R. JohnsonG · #3	3	0	0-1	—	—	-5	0	0
Team		101	35-63	8-17	23-29		26	16
DNP: G. VanSlooten, D. Dantas

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

IND

Home

37-69

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-63

FG %

7-18

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-17

27-35

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 2-1

Jun 4

ATL71@

IND83

Jun 18

ATL108@

IND101today

Jun 20

IND96@

ATL113

Aug 16

IND@

ATLupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

173.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

ATL-11553%

IND-10551%

3· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

173.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat IND 108-101. R. Howard led with 16 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 34-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 22 REB · 17 AST

GS 77

Bench(4)

19 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

GS 12

INDstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 17 REB · 12 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND4th Quarter · 3:28 · 95-93

+15pp→ 55% WP

Allisha Gray · personal foul

ATL4th Quarter · 3:05 · 95-95

+14pp→ 64% WP

Aliyah Boston · shooting foul

IND4th Quarter · 1:52 · 99-95

+13pp→ 35% WP

Naz Hillmon · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	24	34	29	21	108
IND	29	20	29	23	101

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · IND won 2

Reese 8

Clark 7

Borlase 9

Clark 10

Hillmon 9

Clark 9

Reese 7

Mitchell 13

ATL

IND

Shooting comparison

ATL

IND

54%

37-69

56%

35-63

39%

7-18

3PT

47%

8-17

77%

27-35

79%

23-29

Play-by-play · 442 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 108·IND 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 108·IND 101
Q4·4.0
Angel Reese defensive rebound
ATL 108·IND 101
Q4·6.8
Sophie Cunningham misses 32-foot three point jumper
ATL 108·IND 101
Q4·8.7
Tyasha Harris enters the game for Makayla Timpson
·
ATL 108·IND 101
Q4·8.7
Fever Full timeout
ATL 108·IND 101
Q4·8.7
Angel Reese makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 108·IND 101
Q4·8.7
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Tyasha Harris
·
ATL 107·IND 101
Q4·8.7
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 107·IND 101
Q4·8.7
Angel Reese misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 107·IND 101
Q4·8.7
Tyasha Harris personal take foul
ATL 107·IND 101
Q4·9.3
Angel Reese defensive rebound
ATL 107·IND 101
Q4·12.4
Aliyah Boston misses 27-foot three point jumper
ATL 107·IND 101
−1pp
Q4·15.9
Fever timeout
ATL 107·IND 101
Q4·15.9
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Makayla Timpson
·
ATL 107·IND 101
Q4·15.9
Jordin Canada steps out of bounds turnover
ATL 107·IND 101
Q4·16.9
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
ATL 107·IND 101
+1pp
Q4·16.9
(00:16.9) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Dream] retain their timeout
ATL 107·IND 101
Q4·16.9
Dream Coach's Challenge
ATL 107·IND 101
Q4·16.9
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 107·IND 101
−1pp
Q4·17.2
Jordin Canada misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 107·IND 101
+2pp
Q4·17.2
Jordin Canada makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 107·IND 101
Q4·17.2
Tyasha Harris personal take foul
ATL 106·IND 101
−2pp
Q4·18.3
Lexie Hull enters the game for Makayla Timpson
·
ATL 106·IND 101
Q4·18.3
Dream Full timeout
ATL 106·IND 101
Q4·18.3
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 106·IND 101
−2pp
Q4·18.3
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 106·IND 100
+0.6pp
Q4·18.3
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
ATL 106·IND 99
Q4·18.3
Tyasha Harris enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
ATL 106·IND 99
Q4·18.3
Naz Hillmon shooting foul
ATL 106·IND 99
+2pp

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 173.5·ATL -115/IND -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 108–101.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 173.5 OVER by 35.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

ATL

IND

eFG%

shooting

58.7%

61.9%

TOV%

ball control

12.4%

19.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

30.0%

19.2%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

39.1%

36.5%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

25.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
44.9%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
43.4%
P(IND win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
46.8%
P(IND win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.17

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-102

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at IND?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.6pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best

-125DraftKings

edge +22.6pp · implied 52.0%

IND

no live price

Book	ATL	IND	Best edge
DraftKings	-125★	-105	+22.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

IND vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
19.9± 5.4medium
Caitlin ClarkIND
19.8± 9.1medium
Rhyne HowardATL
18.5± 9.4medium

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
11.8± 4.2medium
Aliyah BostonIND
8.6± 2.3medium
Naz HillmonATL
5.3± 2.3medium

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.6± 3.2medium
Jordin CanadaATL
6.8± 3.0medium
Rhyne HowardATL
3.3± 1.9medium

Blocks

Aliyah BostonIND
1.4± 1.6medium
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.1medium
Rhyne HowardATL
0.8± 1.1medium

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.9± 2.1medium
Jordin CanadaATL
1.9± 1.8medium
Allisha GrayATL
1.6± 1.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

ATL

league avg

IND

44.3%

FG%

44.6

▶

46.2%

33.4%

3PT %

33.4

▶

34.3%

88.6

PPG

85.7

▶

92.2

19.9

Assists / G

18.0

▶

20.9

12.9

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

15.3

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Tim Greene

Referee

Ashley Gloss

Referee

Sarah Williams

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Data via ESPN · wehoop