• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2MIN
MIN

MIN

27-28

5
3
CHW

CHW

27-27

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
15,432 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

CHW no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.9% · -0.7

+2.0-0.5CHW SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL52.9%44.3%CHW NO-VIG %May 25, 6 PMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 5 · CHW 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
MIN000200000035
CHW000000020013

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.7pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best
+130DraftKings

edge +4.7pp · implied 40.8%

CHW

no live price

BookMINCHWBest edge
DraftKings+130★-170+4.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 28, 26sim 98
    92
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 96
    73
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 96
    91
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 96
    165
    24(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 94
    236
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 94
    116
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesCHW win series 3-1/VegasMIN -115

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 5–3.

MIN -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Orlando Arcia

Orlando Arcia

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami

1B

1.000OPS

5-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
MIN27-28
5
3
CHW27-27
MIN27-28·CHW27-27
MIN

MIN

27-28

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-44100011
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
2-55023000
SPRINT26.428
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-33110002
SPRINT26.632
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44111011
SPRINT27.457
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT27.867
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-44000002
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
0-22000012
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT28.688
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-44000004
J. BellJ. BellDH
0-22000000
O. ArciaO. ArciaSS
1-11010000
Team7-37375750313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
7.2522091
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.2100010
A. MorrisA. MorrisRP
0.2000000
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100010
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
1.0110010
Team11.08320121
CHW

CHW

27-27

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.175
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-55212101
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-55000001
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
2-55020002
SPRINT26.326
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
2-55021001
SPRINT2744
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-33010000
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-22000000
D. RomoD. Romo★C
0-44000003
RR. Nishida★OF
1-44110001
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-22000001
D. HillD. HillRF
0-11000000
Team8-40403831012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BurkeS. Burke★SP
7.0322280
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
2.0100020
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.0100020
T. DavisT. DavisRP
1.0232110
Team11.07543130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    98 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.7 mph·18% whiff
    • KC
      24%·79.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      23%·81.3 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      5%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      50%·84.3 mph·60% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      69%·77.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·92.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Banda
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.0 mph·— whiff
  • A. Morris
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      38%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.9 mph·100% whiff

CHW

  • S. Burke
    100 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.6 mph·19% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.6 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      15%·87.1 mph·29% whiff
    • KC
      14%·79.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.1 mph·— whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    34 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SV
      29%·83.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.1 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      3%·92.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Davis
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.8 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      32%·87.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      8%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hudson
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      71%·93.6 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      29%·81.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 3-1

May 25MINMIN1@CHWCHW3
May 26MINMIN5@CHWCHW3today
May 27MINMIN2@CHWCHW15
May 28MINMIN2@CHWCHW6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 25MINMIN1@CHWCHW3
May 26MINMIN5@CHWCHW3today
May 27MINMIN2@CHWCHW15
May 28MINMIN2@CHWCHW6
Jun 1CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Jun 2CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Jun 3CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Aug 29CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Aug 29CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Aug 30CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Sep 4MINMIN@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 5MINMIN@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 6MINMIN@CHWCHWupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

MINMIN-11553%
CHWCHW-10551%

↗3· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 50pp · Top 11th Inning

MINMIN
O. Arcia

O. Arcia

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcher

7.2 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 5 H

CHWCHW
M. Murakami

M. Murakami

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIN beat CHW 5-3. Keaschall's play in the top 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (50pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Win probability

CHW vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 8th Inning · 2-2
+38pp→ 57% WP

Murakami · homered to right (380 feet), Nishida scored.

MINTop 11th Inning · 2-2
+50pp→ 67% WP

Keaschall · reached on infield single to third, Kreidler to third.

MINTop 11th Inning · 5-2
+38pp→ 93% WP

Lee · doubled to right, Buxton scored, Kreidler scored and Keaschall scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
MIN000200000035
CHW000000020013

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · CHW won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Clemens 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Murakami 2

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

3
1

Inn 11

Lee 3

Meidroth 1

MIN
CHW

Play-by-play · 640 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    MIN 5·CHW 3

  2. B11

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 3

  3. B11

    Grichuk grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 3

    −5pp

  4. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 3

  5. B11

    Meidroth to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIN 5·CHW 3

  6. B11

    Meidroth to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIN 5·CHW 3

  7. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 3

  8. B11

    Yoendrys Gomez pitches to Randal Grichuk

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 3

  9. B11

    ·

    MIN 5·CHW 3

  10. B11

    Meidroth singled to left, Murakami scored.

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 3

    +3pp

  11. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 3

  12. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  13. B11

    Yoendrys Gomez pitches to Chase Meidroth

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 3

  14. B11

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  15. B11

    Montgomery struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

    −4pp

  16. B11

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  17. B11

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  18. B11

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  19. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  20. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  21. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  22. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  23. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  24. B11

    Yoendrys Gomez pitches to Colson Montgomery

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  25. B11

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  26. B11

    Vargas flied out to right, Murakami to third.

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

    −5pp

  27. B11

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  28. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  29. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

  30. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 5·CHW 2

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

5

Runs

3

7

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

11

TB

12

0

HR

1

3

BB

0

13

K

12

11

LOB

15

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIN -115/CHW -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

CHW vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · CHW favored

  • Elo Static

    55.3%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.1%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.3%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.