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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7SF
CHW

CHW

26-25

3
10
SF

SF

21-31

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
40,172 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

SF no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

+2.0-2.0SF SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL57.2%49.2%SF NO-VIG %MODEL 49.4%May 22, 7 PMMay 23, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

CHW 3 · SF 10 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0000300003
SF0003600110

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.2pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHW

★ best
+102DraftKings

edge +4.2pp · implied 46.4%

SF

no live price

BookCHWSFBest edge
DraftKings+102★-133+4.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasSF -117

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Chicago White Sox, 10–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SF +1.5 cashed (CHW lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Tristan Peters

Tristan Peters

CF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt

DH

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW26-25
3
10
SF21-31
CHW26-25·SF21-31
CHW

CHW

26-25

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
0-55101002
SPRINT28.175
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
0-44000002
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-44021000
SPRINT28.381
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44010002
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44010000
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-44000002
J. KelenicJ. Kelenic★RF
1-22110001
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
2-22120000
SPRINT28.586
D. RomoD. Romo★C
1-33011011
SPRINT26.326
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
1-22010001
D. HillD. HillRF
1-22010001
Team10-363631030112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. HudsonB. Hudson★RP
1.1000010
E. FeddeE. FeddeSP
3.11088231
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.1211011
T. RichardsT. RichardsRP
2.0211111
Team8.0141010363
SF

SF

21-31

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-55111101
SPRINT27.457
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-55220000
SPRINT26.632
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-44123100
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-55110001
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-33220011
SPRINT28.175
D. SusacD. Susac★C
1-33112012
B. EldridgeB. Eldridge★DH
2-33120010
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
2-44124101
SPRINT27.662
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
1-44010000
Team14-3636101410336
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
4.2733050
M. GageM. GageRP
1.1100040
S. HentgesS. HentgesRP
1.0000120
J. PegueroJ. PegueroRP
2.0200010
Team9.010331120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • E. Fedde
    85 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      36%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      26%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      25%·90.8 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      12%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      1%·94.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Richards
    39 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      56%·92.5 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      38%·80.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      5%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      81%·96.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hudson
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      100%·90.4 mph·22% whiff

SF

  • A. Houser
    79 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      43%·94.7 mph·9% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.5 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Peguero
    29 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      41%·99.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      31%·93.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      28%·99.0 mph·40% whiff
  • M. Gage
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      35%·91.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      30%·84.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.1 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Hentges
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      19%·79.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

14

3

Runs

10

1

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

May 23CHWCHW9@SFSF4
May 23CHWCHW3@SFSF10today
May 24CHWCHW5@SFSF8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 23CHWCHW9@SFSF4
May 23CHWCHW3@SFSF10today
May 24CHWCHW5@SFSF8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHW -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 5.7h

Moneyline

CHWCHW-10351%
SFSF-11754%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 5th Inning

CHWCHW
T. Peters

T. Peters

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

E. Fedde

E. Fedde

SP

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 3 K · 8 ER · 10 H · 2 BB

SFSF
C. Schmitt

C. Schmitt

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 7 H

How it ended

SF beat CHW 10-3. Schmitt's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

SF vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 4th Inning · 0-0
+19pp→ 72% WP

Arraez · tripled to right.

CHWTop 5th Inning · 3-3
+16pp→ 44% WP

Vargas · doubled to center, Antonacci scored.

SFBottom 5th Inning · 3-5
+22pp→ 84% WP

Schmitt · homered to left (396 feet), Arraez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0000300003
SF00036001—10

Period scoring

CHW won 0 · SF won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Susac 2

3
6

Inn 5

Romo 1

Bader 4

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Adames 1

0

Inn 9

CHW
SF

Play-by-play · 584 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  2. T9

    Antonacci grounded out to third.

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  5. T9

    Joel Peguero pitches to Sam Antonacci

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  6. T9

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  7. T9

    Romo grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Hill out at second, Grichuk to third.

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

    +0.5pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  11. T9

    Joel Peguero pitches to Drew Romo

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  12. T9

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  13. T9

    Hill reached on infield single to second, Grichuk to second.

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  20. T9

    Joel Peguero pitches to Derek Hill

    · ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  21. T9

    ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  22. T9

    Grichuk singled to right.

    ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  26. T9

    Joel Peguero pitches to Randal Grichuk

    ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 3·SF 10

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 3·SF 10

  29. B8

    ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

  30. B8

    Devers flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 3·SF 10

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

SF

Home

3

Runs

10

10

Hits

14

1

Errors

0

12

TB

26

0

HR

3

1

BB

3

12

K

6

18

LOB

11

Betting line

CHW -1.5·O/U 9·CHW -103/SF -117

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

SF vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.6%

ensemble · CHW favored

  • Elo Static

    51.5%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.0%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.1%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 100
    49
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 99
    1610
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 98
    161
    23(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 97
    45
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 97
    236
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 96
    289
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs