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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CHW
MIN

MIN

26-28

1
3
CHW

CHW

27-26

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
30,114 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

CHW no-vig %

49.1%

open 48.9% · +0.2

+2.0+1.0CHW SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL53.5%44.9%CHW NO-VIG %May 24, 3 PMMay 25, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

MIN 1 · CHW 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHW +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN1000000001
CHW120000003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.0pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

MIN

no live price

CHW

★ best
-112DraftKings

edge +4.0pp · implied 50.5%

BookMINCHWBest edge
DraftKings-107-112★+4.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 26, 26sim 96
    95
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 94
    74
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 94
    74
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 94
    42
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 94
    92
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 94
    110
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, May 25·Final/SeriesCHW win series 3-1/VegasCHW -114

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Minnesota Twins, 3–1.

CHW +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Brooks Lee

Brooks Lee

SS

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Drew Romo

Drew Romo

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN26-28
1
3
CHW27-26
MIN26-28·CHW27-26
MIN

MIN

26-28

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-33010011
SPRINT29.597
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-33111100
SPRINT26.428
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-44000000
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-44000001
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-44000001
O. ArciaO. Arcia★SS
1-33010002
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.688
R. KreidlerR. Kreidler★CF
1-22010000
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
2-33020001
T. GrayT. Gray3B
0-11000001
T. LarnachT. LarnachLF
0-22000001
V. CaratiniV. CaratiniC
0-11000000
Team7-3434171118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. MatthewsZ. Matthews★SP
6.0533162
S. Woods RichardsonS. Woods RichardsonSP
2.0100110
Team8.0633272
CHW

CHW

27-26

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.175
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-44000000
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-22000011
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT2744
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-44000001
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-22100011
SPRINT28.586
D. RomoD. Romo★C
1-33112102
SPRINT26.326
RR. Nishida★OF
1-33010001
Team6-3030363227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. KayA. Kay★SP
6.0511151
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0100010
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.0000000
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0100020
Team9.0711181

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • Z. Matthews
    88 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      34%·96.2 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      32%·86.8 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      17%·79.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Woods Richardson
    35 pitches·26% CSW
    • CU
      29%·77.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      23%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.1 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • A. Kay
    94 pitches·28% CSW
    • ST
      27%·82.5 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·91.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      7%·83.8 mph·67% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.9 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      32%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·85.2 mph·67% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      31%·97.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      31%·88.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      25%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·98.7 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Hudson
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      60%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·81.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

1

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

CHW win series 3-1

May 25MINMIN1@CHWCHW3today
May 26MINMIN5@CHWCHW3
May 27MINMIN2@CHWCHW15
May 28MINMIN2@CHWCHW6

Season series

CHW lead series 1-0

May 25MINMIN1@CHWCHW3today
May 26MINMIN5@CHWCHW3
May 27MINMIN2@CHWCHW15
May 28MINMIN2@CHWCHW6
Jun 1CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Jun 2CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Jun 3CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Aug 29CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Aug 29CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Aug 30CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Sep 4MINMIN@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 5MINMIN@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 6MINMIN@CHWCHWupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN-10551%
CHWCHW-11453%

↗1· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

MINMIN
B. Lee

B. Lee

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

Z. Matthews

Z. Matthews

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

CHWCHW
D. Romo

D. Romo

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

A. Kay

A. Kay

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHW beat MIN 3-1. Romo's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

CHW vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 66% WP

Lee · homered to left (386 feet).

CHWBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 45% WP

Murakami · homered to right (375 feet).

CHWBottom 2nd Inning · 1-3
+18pp→ 69% WP

Romo · homered to right (352 feet), Peters scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN1000000001
CHW12000000—3

Period scoring

MIN won 0 · CHW won 1

1
1

Inn 1

Lee 1

Murakami 1

0
2

Inn 2

Romo 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIN
CHW

Play-by-play · 518 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  2. T9

    Caratini popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  4. T9

    Keaschall to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  5. T9

    Keaschall to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  8. T9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Victor Caratini

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  9. T9

    Caratini hit for Jackson

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  10. T9

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  11. T9

    Larnach struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

    +5pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  16. T9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Trevor Larnach

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  17. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  18. T9

    Keaschall singled to center.

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

    −5pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  25. T9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Luke Keaschall

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  26. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  27. T9

    Drew Romo challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Tristan Gray called out on strikes.

    · ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

    +4pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 1·CHW 3

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

1

Runs

3

7

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

12

TB

12

1

HR

2

1

BB

2

8

K

7

11

LOB

7

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 8·MIN -105/CHW -114

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.54

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-107

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

49.5%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

CHW vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · CHW favored

  • Elo Static

    55.3%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.4%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.3%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175