Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CHW?

The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — May 25, 2026

FINAL+2CHW

MIN

26-28

CHW

27-26

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

30,114 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

CHW no-vig %

49.1%

open 48.9% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
55.3%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.7%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.54

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-107

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

49.5%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CHW?: The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.7pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

MIN

no live price

CHW

★ best

-112DraftKings

edge +5.7pp · implied 50.5%

Book	MIN	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	-107	-112★	+5.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHW vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 119 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joe RyanMIN
5.7± 2.6high

Hits

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.7high
Royce LewisMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.4± 2.6high
Royce LewisMIN
2.0± 1.8high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.6± 0.8high
Miguel VargasCHW
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
3.1± 3.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

CHW

.726

OPS

.720

.722

.318

OBP

.318

.316

4.68

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.65

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.08

1.39

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.30

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

MIN 1 · CHW 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHW +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
CHW	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Minnesota TwinsChicago White Sox

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.263	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. Lee3B	.256	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
A. MartinRF	.289	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BellDH	.218	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. ArciaSS	.500	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. Keaschall2B	.233	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerSS	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.286	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
T. GraySS	.237	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LarnachLF	.274	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.185	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	1	7	1	1	1	8

Player

.263

.256

.289

.218

.230

.500

.233

.286

.286

.237

.274

.185

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. MatthewsSP	6.0	5	3	3	1	6	88
S. Woods RichardsonSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	35
Team	8.0	6	3	3	2	7	123

Player

Z. MatthewsSP

6.0

S. Woods RichardsonSP

2.0

Team

8.0

123

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.272	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Murakami1B	.235	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. Vargas3B	.239	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MontgomerySS	.217	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Meidroth2B	.266	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
A. BenintendiDH	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. PetersCF	.252	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
D. RomoC	.196	3	1	1	2	1	0	2
R. NishidaRF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		30	3	6	3	2	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. KaySP	6.0	5	1	1	1	5	94
G. TaylorRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
B. HudsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
S. DominguezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19
Team	9.0	7	1	1	1	8	139

Team

MIN

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHW vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CHW vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.