MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Montgomery struck out swinging. → win prob 81→87% PHI

BOT 7TH+4PHI

CHW

34-30

PHI

34-30

MLB · At bat

Bottom 70-12 outs

Pitcher· CHW

T. Richards

1.0 IP, 1 K, 0 ER

Batter· PHI

R. Marchan

1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI

LastPitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

Live · model leanBot 7thPolls every 30s

70.4%

PHI wins · current

Pre-game: 51.3% PHI

CHW 5 · 9 PHI

PHI +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsPHI leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingPHIBottom 5th Inning · 5-5
+19pp→ 77% WP
Bohm · doubled to right, Harper scored, Marsh to third.
Lead flipCHWTop 5th Inning · 5-4
+17pp→ 60% WP
Grichuk · singled to center, Benintendi scored and Montgomery scored.
SwingPHIBottom 3rd Inning · 3-4
+11pp→ 70% WP
Marsh · homered to left center (383 feet).
Lead flipPHIBottom 2nd Inning · 2-3
+20pp→ 67% WP
March · án homered to right center (376 feet), Crawford scored.
Lead flipCHWTop 2nd Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 52% WP
Peters · doubled to center, Gonzalez to third.

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 25.80

T. Gilbert

0-0 · 20.25 ERA

A. Nola

3-4 · 5.55 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

PHI no-vig %

60.3%

open 59.3% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
52.7%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.2%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.5%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.44 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+46.3ppvs pre-game · PHI favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.04

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+141

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

39.7%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.3pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHW

★ best

+243DraftKings

edge +21.3pp · implied 27.4%

PHI

no live price

Book	CHW	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+243★	-340	+21.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

PHI vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.0± 3.2low
Davis MartinCHW
6.1± 3.5low
Zack WheelerPHI
6.0± 2.5low

Hits

Tristan PetersCHW
1.3± 1.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.0high
Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 3.2high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Miguel VargasCHW
0.9± 1.5high
Jacob GonzalezCHW
0.7± 1.4low
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.4± 3.1low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 2.6low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.7± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

CHW

White Sox

41-29

vs51.3%PHI

PHI★

Phillies

39-37

CHW 48.7%win prob51.3% PHI

PHI 1518 · CHW 1524Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. AntonacciLF	.288	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
M. Vargas3B	.243	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. BenintendiDH	.237	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. MontgomerySS	.226	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
C. Meidroth2B	.271	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. GonzalezSS	.300	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
T. PetersCF	.307	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
D. RomoC	.164	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
R. NishidaRF	.241	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. QueroC	.185	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukRF	.274	2	0	2	2	0	0	0
D. HillRF	.213	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		28	5	9	5	0	5	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.288

.243

.237

.226

.271

.300

.307

.164

.241

.185

.274

.213

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. GilbertRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	17
D. SandlinSP	3.1	3	3	3	3	6	81
T. DavisRP	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	21
B. HudsonRP	0.2	2	2	2	2	0	25
T. RichardsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	6.2	10	9	9	6	9	153

Player

0.2

3.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

Team

6.2

153

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. SchwarberDH	.239	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
T. TurnerSS	.226	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Harper1B	.265	3	2	2	1	0	1	0
B. MarshLF	.340	3	2	2	2	1	1	1
A. Bohm3B	.224	3	1	2	2	0	1	0
B. Stott2B	.218	3	0	1	1	0	1	2
A. GarciaRF	.199	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. CrawfordCF	.230	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.104	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
Team		29	9	10	9	2	6	9