Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at PHI?

The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 7, 2026

FINAL+4PHI

CHW

34-31

PHI

35-30

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

41,978 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

PHI no-vig %

60.3%

open 59.3% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
53.7%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.2%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.8%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.04

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+141

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

39.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at PHI?: The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+54.9pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

CHW

no live price

PHI

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +54.9pp · implied 0.0%

Book	CHW	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+143	—★	+54.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 121 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Sean BurkeCHW
7.1± 2.4high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.2high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.3± 2.7high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high
Trea TurnerPHI
2.0± 2.2high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Alec BohmPHI
0.7± 1.2high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.6± 2.8medium
Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
3.1± 3.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

PHI

.719

OPS

◀

.719

.709

.315

OBP

◀

.318

.307

4.68

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.41

4.07

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.20

1.30

WHIP

1.30

1.31

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

CHW 5 · PHI 9 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	2	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
PHI	1	2	1	0	3	2	0	0	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Chicago White SoxPhiladelphia Phillies

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.286	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
M. Vargas3B	.242	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. BenintendiDH	.237	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. MontgomerySS	.225	3	1	1	0	0	2	2
C. Meidroth2B	.274	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. GonzalezSS	.300	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
T. PetersCF	.307	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
D. RomoC	.164	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
R. NishidaRF	.241	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. QueroC	.184	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. GrichukDH	.315	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
D. HillCF	.213	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		34	5	10	5	0	5	11

Player

.286

.242

.237

.225

.274

.300

.307

.164

.241

.184

.315

.213

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GilbertRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	17
D. SandlinSP	3.1	3	3	3	3	6	81
T. DavisRP	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	21
B. HudsonRP	0.2	2	2	2	2	0	25
T. RichardsRP	2.1	1	0	0	0	1	27
Team	8.0	11	9	9	6	9	171

Player

0.2

3.1

1.0

0.2

2.1

Team

8.0

171

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. SchwarberDH	.238	3	1	0	0	0	2	1
T. TurnerSS	.229	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
B. Harper1B	.264	4	2	2	1	0	1	0
B. MarshLF	.338	4	2	2	2	1	1	1
A. Bohm3B	.224	3	1	2	2	0	1	0
B. Stott2B	.218	3	0	1	1	0	1	2
A. GarciaRF	.199	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. CrawfordCF	.230	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.103	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
Team		34	9	11	9	2	6	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NolaSP	4.1	6	5	5	4	4	98
T. MayzaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	16
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	28
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	27
J. BowlanRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	19
Team	9.0	10	5	5	5	11	188

Team

CHW

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PHI vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.