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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SEA
CHW

CHW

25-24

4
5
SEA

SEA

24-27

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
24,492 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

57.2%

open 58.3% · -1.1

-1.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL62.3%53.2%SEA NO-VIG %May 19, 5 PMMay 20, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

CHW 4 · SEA 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0010100114
SEA010100305

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.5pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHW

★ best
+226DraftKings

edge +20.5pp · implied 28.8%

SEA

no live price

BookCHWSEABest edge
DraftKings+226★-312+20.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 5, 26sim 97
    111
    22(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 97
    113
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    114
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 96
    135
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 96
    41
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 96
    171
    23(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, May 20·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 2-1/VegasSEA -144

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Chicago White Sox, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

CHW +1.5 cashed (SEA won by 1). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk

RF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena

LF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW25-24
4
5
SEA24-27
CHW25-24·SEA24-27
CHW

CHW

25-24

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
2-44120001
SPRINT28.175
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
2-55021001
SPRINT27.148
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44011001
SPRINT26.632
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000011
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
2-33120011
SPRINT2744
J. KelenicJ. Kelenic★RF
1-33010011
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
1-44010001
D. RomoD. Romo★C
0-33000000
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
1-33110002
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
1-11111100
SPRINT26.735
D. HillD. HillRF
0-11000001
E. QueroE. QueroC
0-11000001
Team11-363641131411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BurkeS. Burke★SP
4.2422350
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
2.0222011
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
0.1111001
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.0000110
Team8.0755472
SEA

SEA

24-27

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-22010010
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44120000
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000001
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-22312110
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
0-22000001
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-33011001
SPRINT25.920
P. WisdomP. Wisdom★3B
1-44011002
C. EmersonC. Emerson★3B
0-33000012
J. PeredaJ. Pereda★C
1-22111110
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
0-22000000
Team7-2828575247
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. HancockE. Hancock★SP
5.0522340
C. CriswellC. CriswellRP
1.0200010
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0100020
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0210110
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0111031
Team9.011434111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Burke
    83 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      37%·94.2 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      22%·79.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      2%·90.2 mph·— whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.0 mph·40% whiff
    • SV
      38%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      64%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      29%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·87.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hicks
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      80%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·86.2 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • E. Hancock
    86 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      49%·95.6 mph·15% whiff
    • FC
      20%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      14%·76.4 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      70%·96.1 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      30%·84.9 mph·75% whiff
  • C. Criswell
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      35%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Brash
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • SL
      71%·87.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      24%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·92.1 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

SEA wins series 2-1

May 19CHWCHW1@SEASEA6
May 20CHWCHW2@SEASEA1
May 20CHWCHW4@SEASEA5today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

May 8SEASEA12@CHWCHW8
May 9SEASEA1@CHWCHW6
May 10SEASEA1@CHWCHW2
May 19CHWCHW1@SEASEA6
May 20CHWCHW2@SEASEA1
May 20CHWCHW4@SEASEA5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+11946%
SEASEA-14459%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 6th Inning

CHWCHW
R. Grichuk

R. Grichuk

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
R. Arozarena

R. Arozarena

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

E. Hancock

E. Hancock

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SEA beat CHW 5-4. Romo's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

SEA vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 5th Inning · 2-2
+20pp→ 52% WP

Murakami · singled to right, Acuña scored, Antonacci to third.

SEATop 6th Inning · 2-2
+20pp→ 66% WP

Romo · grounded out to first.

SEABottom 7th Inning · 2-3
+20pp→ 86% WP

Pereda · homered to left (392 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0010100114
SEA01010030—5

Period scoring

CHW won 3 · SEA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Canzone 1

1
0

Inn 3

Benintendi 1

0
1

Inn 4

Wisdom 1

1
0

Inn 5

Murakami 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Arozarena 2

1
0

Inn 8

Peters 1

1

Inn 9

Grichuk 1

CHW
SEA

Play-by-play · 576 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  2. T9

    Montgomery struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  8. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Colson Montgomery

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  9. T9

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  10. T9

    Hill struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

    +5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  17. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Derek Hill

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  18. T9

    Hill hit for Benintendi

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  19. T9

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  20. T9

    Munetaka Murakami challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Munetaka Murakami called out on strikes.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

    +6pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  28. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Munetaka Murakami

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  29. T9

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

  30. T9

    Grichuk homered to right (360 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 4·SEA 5

    −7pp

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

4

Runs

5

11

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

15

TB

17

1

HR

2

4

BB

4

11

K

7

18

LOB

21

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7.5·CHW +119/SEA -144

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

SEA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    52.5%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.8%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.7%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175