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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4CHW
KC

KC

19-25

2
6
CHW

CHW

22-21

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
14,913 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHW no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0-0.5CHW SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL48.9%40.9%CHW NO-VIG %May 13, 5 PMMay 14, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

KC 2 · CHW 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHW +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC1000001002
CHW202100016

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.0pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

KC

no live price

CHW

★ best
+151DraftKings

edge +22.0pp · implied 37.4%

BookKCCHWBest edge
DraftKings-200+151★+22.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 20, 26sim 97
    263
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 96
    263
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 95
    262
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 95
    265
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 94
    186
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 94
    92
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, May 14·Final/SeriesCHW win series 3-0/VegasKC -136

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Kansas City Royals, 6–2.

CHW +1.5 cashed (KC lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez

C

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk

RF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC19-25
2
6
CHW22-21
KC19-25·CHW22-21
KC

KC

19-25

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-55111000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-33010010
SPRINT30.399+
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
1-22011000
SPRINT28.688
S. PerezS. Perez★C
2-44020001
SPRINT241
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-33000000
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44000001
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-33010011
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-33000000
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-44110002
SPRINT26.941
J. CaglianoneJ. CaglianoneRF
0-11000000
Team7-3232272025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BubicK. Bubic★SP
4.0555341
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
2.0000220
A. LangeA. LangeRP
1.0100000
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0211010
Team8.0866571
CHW

CHW

22-21

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
2-33121010
SPRINT2744
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT28.381
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
0-11100030
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
2-33124100
SPRINT26.735
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-44000003
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-44000000
D. HillD. Hill★RF
1-33011010
SPRINT29.294
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
1-33110001
J. KelenicJ. Kelenic★RF
0-33000001
S. AntonacciS. AntonacciLF
1-11110000
SPRINT28.175
Team8-2929686157
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. KayA. Kay★SP
6.0622240
T. DavisT. DavisRP
1.0000000
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
2.0100010
Team9.0722250

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • K. Bubic
    84 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      35%·92.1 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      27%·82.3 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      19%·91.2 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      10%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.1 mph·40% whiff
  • L. Avila
    33 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      33%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·90.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      3%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      47%·96.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Lange
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      30%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      20%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·88.3 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • A. Kay
    97 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      23%·82.0 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.2 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      19%·91.2 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      1%·84.6 mph·— whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      38%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      15%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·82.0 mph·— whiff
  • T. Davis
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      44%·86.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

2

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 3-0

May 12KCKC5@CHWCHW6
May 13KCKC5@CHWCHW6
May 14KCKC2@CHWCHW6today

Season series

CHW lead series 5-2

Apr 9CHWCHW2@KCKC0
Apr 10CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 11CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 12CHWCHW6@KCKC5
May 12KCKC5@CHWCHW6
May 13KCKC5@CHWCHW6
May 14KCKC2@CHWCHW6today
Jun 26KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Jun 27KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Jun 28KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 22CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming
Sep 23CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming
Sep 24CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.5h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC-13658%
CHWCHW+11347%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 1st Inning

KCKC
L. Thomas

L. Thomas

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

K. Bubic

K. Bubic

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

CHWCHW
R. Grichuk

R. Grichuk

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

A. Kay

A. Kay

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHW beat KC 6-2. Grichuk's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 1st Inning · 1-2
+20pp→ 51% WP

Grichuk · homered to left center (401 feet), Murakami scored.

CHWBottom 3rd Inning · 1-4
+13pp→ 83% WP

Grichuk · singled to center, Meidroth scored and Vargas scored, Murakami to second.

CHWBottom 5th Inning · 1-5
+9pp→ 94% WP

Murakami · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC1000001002
CHW20210001—6

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

2

Runs

6

7

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

9

TB

12

0

HR

1

2

BB

5

5

K

7

14

LOB

12

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 7.5·KC -136/CHW +113

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

CHW vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

KC won 1 · CHW won 4

1
2

Inn 1

Thomas 1

Grichuk 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Grichuk 2

0
1

Inn 4

Meidroth 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Garcia 1

0
1

Inn 8

Hill 1

0

Inn 9

KC
CHW

Play-by-play · 540 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  2. T9

    Garcia grounded out to second.

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  10. T9

    Sean Newcomb pitches to Maikel Garcia

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  11. T9

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  12. T9

    Isbel struck out looking.

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

    +0.5pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  18. T9

    Sean Newcomb pitches to Kyle Isbel

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  19. T9

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  20. T9

    Collins grounded out to third.

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

    +0.7pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  26. T9

    Sean Newcomb pitches to Isaac Collins

    ·

    KC 2·CHW 6

  27. T9

    Hill in left field.

    KC 2·CHW 6

  28. T9

    Peters in center field.

    KC 2·CHW 6

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    KC 2·CHW 6

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    KC 2·CHW 6

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

CHW vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.9%

ensemble · CHW favored

  • Elo Static

    58.8%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.0%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.7%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175