Recent form
7-3
MIA +1.1 vs PHI +0.6 margin
MIA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
MIA
MIA
36-37
PregameWed, 1:05 PM EDT
PHI
PHI
39-33
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line movement
8 snapshots
PHI spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
PHI no-vig %
51.1%
open 51.7% · -0.7
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Sandy Alcantara
SP · #22
6-4
W-L
4.25
ERA
1.22
WHIP
71
K
97.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@PITW(6-4)8.0 IP3 ER7 K
vsTBW(5-4)7.0 IP1 ER7 K
@WSHW(4-4)7.0 IP3 ER5 K
Home starter
Andrew Painter
SP · #24
1-7
W-L
6.43
ERA
1.57
WHIP
50
K
63.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@MIL-5.0 IP5 ER3 K
vsCHWL(1-7)4.2 IP6 ER4 K
@LADL(1-6)3.1 IP4 ER3 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money-105 / -115
Model edge
Win prob44% / 56%
LeanHome · 6pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesPHI leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take PHI on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
PHI vs MIA.
PHI is 6-4 recently; MIA is 7-3.
55.9%
model · PHI win prob
Recent form
- PHI6–4+0.6
- MIA7–3+1.1
Situational
- PHI2d rest
- MIA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHI has 0 straight road games; MIA has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Lake BacharMIA2.1strikeouts · ±1.3
Lake Bachar · 2.1 K · last-10 2.2 vs season 2.
- Brandon MarshPHI2.1total bases · ±2.3
Brandon Marsh · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.8.
- Otto LopezMIA2.0total bases · ±1.8
Otto Lopez · 2 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.9.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
PHI is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-15MIA @ PHI0–7
Line move
open -118→-115toward MIA
The market has moved 0.6pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.7%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
55.7%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.1%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.4%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.15 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 98 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cristopher SanchezPHI7.7± 3.4medium
- Max MeyerMIA6.6± 1.8medium
- Zack WheelerPHI6.2± 2.6low
Hits
- Otto LopezMIA1.4± 1.0high
- Liam HicksMIA1.2± 0.9high
- Kyle SchwarberPHI1.2± 1.3high
Total bases
- Brandon MarshPHI2.1± 2.3high
- Otto LopezMIA2.0± 1.8high
- Liam HicksMIA1.9± 2.1high
RBIs
- Alec BohmPHI0.8± 1.1high
- Joe MackMIA0.7± 1.0high
- Kyle StowersMIA0.7± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.7± 2.9low
- Aaron NolaPHI3.5± 2.6low
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA3.3± 3.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
PHI
.700
OPS
◀
.717
.690
.321
OBP
◀
.319
.299
4.19
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.11
4.20
Team ERA
4.18
▶4.02
1.27
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.30
8.8
K / 9
8.5
▶9.5
The One modelLean
Wed, Jun 17MIA
Marlins
44-39
vs55.9%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
47-40
MIA 44.1%win prob55.9% PHI
PHI 1540 · MIA 1524Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
