MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6LAD

LAD

45-26

CHW

37-32

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

37,832 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CHW no-vig %

35.5%

open 35.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
46.7%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.8%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+169

Close price

+169

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.8pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

LAD

no live price

CHW

★ best

+1140DraftKings

edge +32.8pp · implied 10.7%

Book	LAD	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	-205	+1140★	+32.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHW vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Davis MartinCHW
6.3± 3.1low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low

Hits

Chase MeidrothCHW
1.2± 0.8high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.2± 1.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.0high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
2.0± 3.2low
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.9± 1.7high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
0.9± 1.7low
Braden MontgomeryCHW
0.8± 1.8low
Kyle TuckerLAD
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.7± 2.6low
Anthony KayCHW
2.5± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

CHW

.787

OPS

◀

.717

.737

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.325

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.76

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.29

1.09

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 7 · CHW 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	7
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.305	3	2	1	1	1	3	0
A. PagesCF	.278	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
F. Freeman1B	.275	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. BettsSS	.196	5	3	3	0	0	0	2
M. Muncy3B	.272	3	2	3	4	2	2	0
K. TuckerRF	.235	3	0	1	2	0	1	1
R. WardLF	.229	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. RushingC	.270	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
A. Freeland2B	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. CallLF	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. RojasSS	.260	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. Espinal3B	.268	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	7	10	7	3	10	11

Player

.305

.278

.275

.196

.272

.235

.229

.270

.231

.259

.260

.268

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. YamamotoSP	8.1	1	1	1	0	7	109
A. VesiaRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	9.0	1	1	1	0	7	117

Player

Y. YamamotoSP

8.1

109

A. VesiaRP

0.2

Team

9.0

117

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.279	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Vargas3B	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. BenintendiDH	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MontgomerySS	.218	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MontgomeryRF	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Meidroth2B	.279	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Gonzalez1B	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. PetersCF	.299	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
E. QueroC	.180	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. PereiraRF	.246	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	1	1	1	0	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BurkeSP	4.0	6	4	4	5	6	92
J. RockSP	3.0	1	1	1	5	3	60
B. EisertRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	27
T. DavisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	10	7	7	10	11	188

Team

LAD

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHW vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.