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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHW
DET

DET

22-36

3
4
CHW

CHW

30-27

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
30,019 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHW no-vig %

47.9%

open 47.4% · +0.6

+2.0+1.0CHW SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL51.9%43.4%CHW NO-VIG %May 28, 5 PMMay 29, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

DET 3 · CHW 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHW +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
DET00200000013
CHW00100000124

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 59-50
61%Last 30 · 320-207
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.0pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

DET

no live price

CHW

★ best
-114DraftKings

edge +13.0pp · implied 50.0%

BookDETCHWBest edge
DraftKings-114-114★+13.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 29·Final/SeriesCHW lead series 1-0/VegasCHW -112

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Detroit Tigers, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

CHW +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Dillon Dingler

Dillon Dingler

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Edgar Quero

Edgar Quero

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
DET22-36
3
4
CHW30-27
DET22-36·CHW30-27
DET

DET

22-36

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
0-55000003
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-44112102
SPRINT27.765
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
0-11000000
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-33000011
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-44000001
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-33110010
SPRINT28.483
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-22000011
Z. ShortZ. Short★SS
0-22101011
C. KeithC. Keith3B
0-22000000
H. LeeH. Lee2B
0-11000000
Team4-3131343149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MeltonT. Melton★SP
7.0611110
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0100010
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0211000
D. AndersonD. AndersonRP
0.2121011
Team9.21043131
CHW

CHW

30-27

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
2-55020001
SPRINT28.175
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
0-22000001
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-55123100
SPRINT28.381
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000001
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44010000
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-33110010
SPRINT26.632
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.586
RR. Nishida★OF
0-33001000
D. RomoD. Romo★C
1-44110000
SPRINT26.326
L. AcunaL. AcunaCF
0-11100000
E. QueroE. QueroC
1-11010000
D. HillD. HillRF
0-11000000
Team10-37374104113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. EisertB. Eisert★RP
1.1000010
E. FeddeE. Fedde★SP
4.0422331
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
2.2000130
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0000010
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.0010010
Team10.0432491

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • T. Melton
    89 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      36%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      34%·85.9 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      8%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FS
      46%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      36%·97.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      36%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Anderson
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • CH
      70%·89.7 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      20%·79.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.9 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • E. Fedde
    84 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      44%·81.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      26%·89.1 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.5 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      8%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·94.0 mph·— whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    28 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      32%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      25%·81.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.4 mph·— whiff
  • B. Eisert
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      37%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      32%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      32%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      40%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      20%·98.1 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      10%·84.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hudson
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      86%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·81.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

10

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

CHW lead series 1-0

May 29DETDET3@CHWCHW4today
May 30DETDET@CHWCHWupcoming
May 31DETDET@CHWCHWupcoming

Season series

CHW lead series 1-0

May 29DETDET3@CHWCHW4today
May 30DETDET@CHWCHWupcoming
May 31DETDET@CHWCHWupcoming
Jun 19CHWCHW@DETDETupcoming
Jun 20CHWCHW@DETDETupcoming
Jun 21CHWCHW@DETDETupcoming
Aug 14CHWCHW@DETDETupcoming
Aug 15CHWCHW@DETDETupcoming
Aug 16CHWCHW@DETDETupcoming
Sep 17DETDET@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 18DETDET@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 19DETDET@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 20DETDET@CHWCHWupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET-10852%
CHWCHW-11253%

↘203· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 83pp · Bottom 10th Inning

DETDET
D. Dingler

D. Dingler

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

T. Melton

T. Melton

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

CHWCHW
E. Quero

E. Quero

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

E. Fedde

E. Fedde

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHW beat DET 4-3. Vargas's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (83pp).

Win probability

CHW vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+22pp→ 69% WP

Dingler · homered to left center (361 feet), Short scored.

DETBottom 8th Inning · 2-1
+24pp→ 79% WP

Vargas · grounded into double play, second to first, Hill out at second.

CHWBottom 10th Inning · 3-4
+83pp→ 100% WP

Vargas · homered to left center (391 feet), Romo scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
DET00200000013
CHW00100000124

Period scoring

DET won 1 · CHW won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
1

Inn 3

Dingler 2

Vargas 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Nishida 1

1
2

Inn 10

Short 1

Vargas 2

DET
CHW

Play-by-play · 559 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    DET 3·CHW 4

  2. B10

    Vargas homered to left center (391 feet), Romo scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 4

    +83pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 4

  4. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  5. B10

    Drew Anderson pitches to Miguel Vargas

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 4

  6. B10

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  7. B10

    Hill grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

    −12pp

  8. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  9. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  10. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  11. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  12. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  13. B10

    Drew Anderson pitches to Derek Hill

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  14. B10

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  15. B10

    Antonacci struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

    −17pp

  16. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  17. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  18. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  19. B10

    Drew Anderson pitches to Sam Antonacci

    ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  20. B10

    Anderson relieved Finnegan

    ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  21. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    DET 3·CHW 2

  22. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    DET 3·CHW 2

  23. T10

    ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  24. T10

    McGonigle struck out looking.

    ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

    +2pp

  25. T10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  26. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  27. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  28. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  29. T10

    Bryan Hudson pitches to Kevin McGonigle

    ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

  30. T10

    ·

    DET 3·CHW 2

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

3

Runs

4

4

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

7

TB

17

1

HR

1

4

BB

1

9

K

3

13

LOB

17

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 8.5·DET -108/CHW -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CHW vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.6± 1.7high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.0%

ensemble · CHW favored

  • Elo Static

    62.0%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.4%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.1%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 970 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 93
    211
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 93
    32
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 93
    211
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 92
    213
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 92
    211
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 91
    203
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
Live · 5
  • MLBTop 8
    SF 3@COL 1
    -37.6pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    ARI 1@SEA 3
    +41.5pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    PHI 0@LAD 3
    +36.6pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    NYY 7@ATH 1
    -39.0pplow
  • WNBAHalftime
    ATL 38@POR 31

The receipts

Why we like CHW.

CHW's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way.

+11.5

pp edge · CHW

+0.56

CLV pp

5.0u · large
on CHW

63.0%

±5.7pp band

5u large — +10.2pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+12.6pp

+1.0pp post-cal

Kelly

21.6%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.89

+10.2pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 11.5pp · CHW over DET

  • ▲
    Model confidence90% conf

    CHW clears the model's lock threshold.

    +1.5pp
  • ▲
    Venue split70% conf

    CHW's venue form is 53.3pp stronger in the recent sample.

    +1.5pp
  • ▲
    Head to head48% conf

    CHW has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.

    +0.2pp

Open price

+102

Close price

-101

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.9%

Market came to the model