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THE ONE Analytics
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DET
1
LiveEnd 5th
CHW logo
CHW
0
Updated 3:24 PM ET
Live read

Torkelson doubled to left, McGonigle scored. → win prob 42→53% DET · leverage medium · next play ≈ ±7pp

END 5TH+1DET↑
DET

DET

22-37

1
0
CHW

CHW

31-27

MLB · At bat

End 5·0-0·0 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastEnd of the 5th inning

Live · model leanEnd 5thPolls every 30s

50.2%

CHW wins · current

Pre-game: 65.4% CHW

DET 1 · 0 CHW

DET +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5
away leadsCHW leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↺Lead flipDETTop 1st Inning · 1-0
    +11pp→ 53% WP

    Torkelson · doubled to left, McGonigle scored.

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.99

K. Montero

2-3 · 4.09 ERA

vs

S. Burke

2-3 · 3.90 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

CHW no-vig %

55.1%

open 54.2% · +0.9

+0.5-2.0CHW SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL59.1%50.2%CHW NO-VIG %May 30, 5 PMMay 31, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One model★ Lock
● Live
DET1

DET

Tigers

24-39

vs65.4%CHW

CHW★

White Sox

38-28

CHW0
DET 34.6%win prob65.4% CHW
CHW 1515 · DET 1441Box score→

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

19.5%

-44.3ppvs pre-game · DET favored

Leverage

±7.2

pp · next play

medium · 47/100

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.3pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

DET

no live price

CHW

★ best
-136DraftKings

edge +10.3pp · implied 55.1%

BookDETCHWBest edge
DraftKings+113-136★+10.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.87

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market came to the model

MLB·Sun, May 31·End 5th/SeriesCHW lead series 2-0/VegasCHW -136
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1K. MonteroDET+22.5pp
  2. 2K. McGonigleDET+13.6pp
  3. 3K. CarpenterDET−8.3pp

DET · top performer

DET
Kevin McGonigle

Kevin McGonigle

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
R

Rikuu Nishida

OF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

End 5th
DET22-37
1
0
CHW31-27
DET22-37·CHW31-27
DET

DET

22-37

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-33000000
SPRINT28.381
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-11110010
SPRINT28.278
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-22011001
SPRINT26.123
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-22010001
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-22000001
SPRINT2744
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
0-22000001
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-22000001
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-22000000
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-22000001
Team3-1818131016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. MonteroK. Montero★SP
5.0200030
Team5.0200030
CHW

CHW

31-27

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
0-22000000
SPRINT28.175
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-22000001
SPRINT28.381
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-22000000
SPRINT26.632
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-22000001
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-22000001
J. GonzalezJ. Gonzalez★SS
0-22000000
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
1-22010000
SPRINT28.586
D. RomoD. Romo★C
0-22000000
RR. Nishida★OF
1-11010000
Team2-1717020003
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BurkeS. Burke★SP
5.0311160
Team5.0311160

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • K. Montero
    56 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.5 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      13%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.8 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • S. Burke
    80 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.8 mph·47% whiff
    • KC
      23%·81.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      16%·88.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      6%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

2

1

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHW lead series 2-0

May 29DETDET3@CHWCHW4
May 30DETDET1@CHWCHW7
May 31DETDET@CHWCHWtoday

Season series

CHW lead series 2-0

May 29DETDET3@CHWCHW4
May 30DETDET1@CHWCHW7
May 31DETDET@CHWCHWtoday
Jun 19CHWCHW@DETDETupcoming
Jun 20CHWCHW@DETDETupcoming
Jun 21CHWCHW@DETDETupcoming
Aug 14CHWCHW@DETDETupcoming
Aug 15CHWCHW@DETDETupcoming
Aug 16CHWCHW@DETDETupcoming
Sep 17DETDET@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 18DETDET@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 19DETDET@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 20DETDET@CHWCHWupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHW -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+11347%
CHWCHW-13658%

↘5· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

-0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
DETDETSP
K. Montero

K. Montero

#54 · 2-3

ERA

4.09

K

39

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/26vsLAALAA5.2 IP · 4 ER · 7 K-
5/19vsCLECLE5.0 IP · 3 ER · 1 K-
5/14@NYMNYM4.2 IP · 4 ER · 2 KL(2-3)
VS
CHWCHWSP
S. Burke

S. Burke

#59 · 2-3

ERA

3.90

K

54

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/26vsMINMIN7.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K-
5/20@SEASEA4.2 IP · 2 ER · 5 K-
5/15vsCHCCHC4.1 IP · 4 ER · 5 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
DETDET5L · 3R · 1S
  1. 1

    C. Keith

    3B · #33

    L
  2. 2

    K. McGonigle

    SS · #7

    L
  3. 3

    S. Torkelson

    1B · #20

    R
  4. 4

    K. Carpenter

    DH · #30

    L
  5. 5

    R. Greene

    LF · #31

    L
  6. 6

    M. Vierling

    CF · #8

    R
  7. 7

    W. Perez

    RF · #46

    B
  8. 8

    Z. McKinstry

    2B · #39

    L
  9. 9

    J. Rogers

    C · #34

    R
CHWCHW6L · 2R · 1S
  1. 1

    S. Antonacci

    LF · #17

    L
  2. 2

    M. Vargas

    3B · #20

    R
  3. 3

    A. Benintendi

    DH · #23

    L
  4. 4

    C. Montgomery

    SS · #12

    L
  5. 5

    C. Meidroth

    2B · #10

    R
  6. 6

    J. Gonzalez

    1B · #7

    L
  7. 7

    T. Peters

    CF · #29

    L
  8. 8

    D. Romo

    C · #36

    B
  9. 9

    R. Nishida

    RF · #51

    L

Live · top performers so far

End 5th
Game flowDET ↔ CHW
Just happened

End of the 5th inning

DETDET
K. McGonigle

K. McGonigle

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

K. Montero

K. Montero

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 H

On pace: 7 IP · 4 K · 0 ER

CHWCHW

R. Nishida

OF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 1 ER

How it's going

DET lead CHW 1-0 (End 5th).

Win probability

CHW vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 53% WP

Torkelson · doubled to left, McGonigle scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345R
DET100001
CHW000000

Period scoring

DET won 1 · CHW won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Torkelson 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

DET
CHW

Play-by-play · 266 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 5t

    End of the 5th inning

    DET 1·CHW 0

  2. B5

    · ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  3. B5

    Romo grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  4. B5

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  5. B5

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  6. B5

    Keider Montero pitches to Drew Romo

    · ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  7. B5

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  8. B5

    Peters doubled to right.

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

    +3pp

  9. B5

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  10. B5

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  11. B5

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  12. B5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  13. B5

    Keider Montero pitches to Tristan Peters

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  14. B5

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  15. B5

    Gonzalez flied out to right.

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

    −3pp

  16. B5

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  17. B5

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  18. B5

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  19. B5

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  20. B5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  21. B5

    Keider Montero pitches to Jacob Gonzalez

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  22. B5

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  23. B5

    Meidroth grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

    −3pp

  24. B5

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  25. B5

    Keider Montero pitches to Chase Meidroth

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  26. B5

    Bottom of the 5th inning

    DET 1·CHW 0

  27. M5

    Middle of the 5th inning

    DET 1·CHW 0

  28. T5

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  29. T5

    Keith flied out to left.

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

  30. T5

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 1·CHW 0

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

1

Runs

0

3

Hits

2

0

Errors

0

4

TB

3

0

HR

0

1

BB

0

6

K

3

6

LOB

2

Betting line

CHW -1.5·O/U 8·DET +113/CHW -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 976 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 29, 26sim 94
    63
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 93
    181
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 93
    180
    17(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 93
    211
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 30, 26sim 93
    61
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 92
    213
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. BallSL 87#4
  2. Fly OutFF 93#5
  3. Foul BallFF 94#1
  4. BallFF 94#2
  5. BallKC 80#3
  6. DoubleCH 86#4
  7. BallSL 87#1
  8. Ground OutCH 86#2

Player projections

CHW vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Tristan PetersCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.8± 1.6high
  • Colson MontgomeryCHW
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium
  • Edgar QueroCHW
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Framber ValdezDET
    3.0± 3.4low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.9%

ensemble · CHW favored

  • Elo Static

    63.8%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.0%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.7%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.