MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8CHW

CHW

33-29

MIN

29-34

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

20,322 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.5%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
46.7%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.1%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.3%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.8pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHW

★ best

-140DraftKings

edge +1.8pp · implied 54.7%

MIN

no live price

Book	CHW	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-140★	+107	+1.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.3± 3.1low
Joe RyanMIN
6.3± 2.9medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.9± 2.4low

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.2high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.2± 0.8high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
1.0± 1.4low

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
3.1± 2.7high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
2.0± 3.2low
Josh BellMIN
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Josh BellMIN
0.9± 1.1high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
0.8± 1.8low
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

MIN

.737

OPS

◀

.717

.715

.325

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.62

4.29

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.82

1.32

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.3

K / 9

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 8 · MIN 0 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHW +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	8
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.291	4	2	4	1	0	1	0
M. Vargas3B	.242	3	2	1	1	0	2	0
A. BenintendiDH	.240	3	2	2	2	1	3	0
C. MontgomerySS	.222	6	0	0	0	0	0	4
C. Meidroth2B	.272	4	1	1	1	0	1	2
J. Gonzalez1B	.286	4	0	2	2	0	1	0
T. PetersCF	.289	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
D. RomoC	.179	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. NishidaRF	.208	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
L. AcunaCF	.178	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukRF	.283	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HillRF	.221	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	8	12	8	1	8	10

Player

.291

.242

.240

.222

.272

.286

.289

.179

.208

.178

.283

.221

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. FeddeSP	5.0	2	0	0	1	2	61
G. TaylorRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	25
C. MurphyRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	3	30
Team	9.0	5	0	0	1	8	116

Player

E. FeddeSP

5.0

G. TaylorRP

2.0

C. MurphyRP

2.0

Team

9.0

116

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. LeeSS	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LarnachLF	.260	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. BellDH	.228	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. MartinRF	.257	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.191	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.249	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Gray3B	.252	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
O. ArciaSS	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OutmanCF	.161	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	0	5	0	0	1	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	4.2	7	4	4	5	5	104
E. OrzeRP	1.1	1	1	0	1	2	26
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12
C. LawerysonRP	1.0	3	3	3	1	2	26
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
Team	9.0	12	8	7	8	10	187

Team

CHW

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIN vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIN vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.