Recent form
7-3
NYY +1.4 vs CHW +0.7 margin
NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees
CHW
CHW
38-32
PregameWed, 7:05 PM EDT
NYY
NYY
43-27
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Line movement
8 snapshots
NYY spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
NYY no-vig %
60.3%
open 60.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Anthony Kay
SP · #18
6-1
W-L
4.34
ERA
1.42
WHIP
53
K
66.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLADW(6-1)5.0 IP2 ER7 K
@PHI-4.0 IP6 ER4 K
vsDETW(5-1)5.0 IP1 ER3 K
Home starter
Carlos Rodon
SP · #55
2-2
W-L
3.19
ERA
1.19
WHIP
34
K
31.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@CLEW(2-2)6.0 IP3 ER7 K
vsCLE-6.0 IP1 ER7 K
@ATHW(1-2)6.0 IP1 ER3 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+141 / -171
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
No prior meetings logged this season yet.
Place a bet
Take NYY on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs CHW.
NYY is 7-3 recently; CHW is 6-4.
63.0%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY7–3+1.4
- CHW6–4+0.7
Situational
- NYY3d rest
- CHW3d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 6 straight road games; CHW has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY2.0total bases · ±1.3
Paul Goldschmidt · 2 TB · last-10 2.1 vs season 1.8.
- Grant TaylorCHW1.9strikeouts · ±1.3
Grant Taylor · 1.9 K · last-10 1.8 vs season 1.9.
- Ben RiceNYY1.9total bases · ±2.0
Ben Rice · 1.9 TB · last-10 1.6 vs season 2.2.
Line move
open -171→-171flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Player projections
NYY vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 81 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Davis MartinCHW6.3± 3.1low
- Ryan WeathersNYY6.3± 3.9low
- Cam SchlittlerNYY6.2± 2.1medium
Hits
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.2± 0.8high
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY1.2± 0.8high
- Braden MontgomeryCHW1.0± 1.4low
Total bases
- Braden MontgomeryCHW2.0± 3.2low
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY2.0± 1.3high
- Ben RiceNYY1.9± 2.0high
RBIs
- Braden MontgomeryCHW0.8± 1.8low
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY0.8± 1.0high
- Cody BellingerNYY0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Ryan WeathersNYY3.0± 3.1low
- Anthony KayCHW2.5± 3.4low
- Erick FeddeCHW2.4± 3.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
NYY
.736
OPS
.717
▶.764
.324
OBP
.319
▶.330
4.70
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.06
4.39
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.31
1.33
WHIP
1.31
▶1.18
8.3
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One modelEdge
Wed, Jun 17CHW
White Sox
47-31
vs63.0%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
51-28
CHW 37.0%win prob63.0% NYY
NYY 1598 · CHW 1542Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
