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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CHW
CHC

CHC

29-17

3
8
CHW

CHW

23-22

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
38,795 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

CHW no-vig %

49.5%

open 50.0% · -0.5

+2.0-0.5CHW SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL54.0%45.5%CHW NO-VIG %May 15, 6 PMMay 16, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHC 3 · CHW 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0000010023
CHW302021008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+47.7pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

CHC

★ best
+599DraftKings

edge +47.7pp · implied 13.4%

CHW

no live price

BookCHCCHWBest edge
DraftKings+599★-1160+47.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1/VegasCHC -113

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Chicago Cubs, 8–3.

CHW +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami

1B

3.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

3

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC29-17
3
8
CHW23-22
CHC29-17·CHW23-22
CHC

CHC

29-17

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-55010000
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44010000
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-44020002
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-44000003
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-44000002
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
1-33110010
SPRINT2622
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-44000001
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-33112111
SPRINT29.294
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
2-44121100
SPRINT257
Team8-3535383229
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TaillonJ. Taillon★SP
5.0888125
E. RobertsE. RobertsRP
2.0000130
R. RolisonR. RolisonRP
1.0000010
Team8.0888265
CHW

CHW

23-22

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
2-44220001
SPRINT28.175
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
2-33323211
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-44113100
SPRINT28.381
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44111100
SPRINT26.326
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-44000000
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
2-33121100
SPRINT26.632
J. KelenicJ. Kelenic★RF
0-33000002
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-22000010
D. RomoD. Romo★C
0-33000001
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-11000001
Team8-3131888526
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MartinD. Martin★SP
6.0511071
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.0100200
T. RichardsT. RichardsRP
2.0222021
Team9.0833292

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • J. Taillon
    90 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      36%·92.3 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      24%·84.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      17%·79.3 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      11%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      7%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Roberts
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • ST
      50%·83.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      44%·92.9 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Rolison
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.8 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      8%·89.2 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • D. Martin
    91 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      24%·95.2 mph·45% whiff
    • CH
      23%·91.6 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      14%·82.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.5 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Richards
    34 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      62%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·79.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      15%·83.9 mph·25% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    31 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      42%·83.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      26%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.1 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

3

Runs

8

0

Errors

1

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

May 15CHCCHC10@CHWCHW5
May 16CHCCHC3@CHWCHW8today
May 17CHCCHC8@CHWCHW9

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 15CHCCHC10@CHWCHW5
May 16CHCCHC3@CHWCHW8today
May 17CHCCHC8@CHWCHW9
Aug 18CHWCHW@CHCCHCupcoming
Aug 19CHWCHW@CHCCHCupcoming
Aug 19CHWCHW@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

CHCCHC-11353%
CHWCHW-10752%

↗3· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHCCHC
P. Crow-Armstrong

P. Crow-Armstrong

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

J. Taillon

J. Taillon

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 8 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

CHWCHW
M. Murakami

M. Murakami

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.417 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H

How it ended

CHW beat CHC 8-3. Vargas's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

CHW vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+18pp→ 81% WP

Vargas · homered to left center (421 feet), Antonacci scored and Murakami scored.

CHWBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+6pp→ 89% WP

Murakami · homered to center (391 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0000010023
CHW30202100—8

Period scoring

CHC won 0 · CHW won 3

0
3

Inn 1

Vargas 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Murakami 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Murakami 2

1
1

Inn 6

Amaya 1

Benintendi 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Crow-Armstrong 2

CHC
CHW

Play-by-play · 541 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  2. T9

    Hoerner grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  6. T9

    Trevor Richards pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  7. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  8. T9

    Amaya flied out to right.

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  14. T9

    Trevor Richards pitches to Miguel Amaya

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  15. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  16. T9

    Crow-Armstrong homered to right (380 feet), Conforto scored.

    · ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 1·CHW 8

  19. T9

    Trevor Richards pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    · ·

    CHC 3·CHW 8

  20. T9

    · ·

    CHC 1·CHW 8

  21. T9

    Shaw struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHC 1·CHW 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 1·CHW 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 1·CHW 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 1·CHW 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 1·CHW 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 1·CHW 8

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 1·CHW 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 1·CHW 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 1·CHW 8

  30. T9

    Trevor Richards pitches to Matt Shaw

    · ·

    CHC 1·CHW 8

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

3

Runs

8

8

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

16

TB

24

2

HR

5

2

BB

2

9

K

6

17

LOB

4

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 8.5·CHC -113/CHW -107

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.43

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

CHW vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    48.1%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.2%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.7%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 16, 26sim 99
    257
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 98
    258
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 96
    84
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 95
    83
    24(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 95
    308
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 95
    1610
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs