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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5SEA
CHW

CHW

24-23

1
6
SEA

SEA

23-26

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
31,409 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SEA no-vig %

60.8%

open 61.6% · -0.8

-1.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL65.6%56.8%SEA NO-VIG %May 17, 6 PMMay 18, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

CHW 1 · SEA 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0000001001
SEA101001036

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+33.5pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHW

★ best
+500DraftKings

edge +33.5pp · implied 15.6%

SEA

no live price

BookCHWSEABest edge
DraftKings+500★-900+33.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 14, 26sim 97
    294
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 96
    131
    6(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 96
    44
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    131
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 95
    114
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 95
    234
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, May 18·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 2-1/VegasSEA -162

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Chicago White Sox, 6–1.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total pushed exactly on 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW24-23
1
6
SEA23-26
CHW24-23·SEA23-26
CHW

CHW

24-23

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
2-33020000
SPRINT28.175
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
2-33020010
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-44000001
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-33000013
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-33000002
J. KelenicJ. Kelenic★RF
0-44000003
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
1-44111101
SPRINT28.586
D. RomoD. Romo★C
1-44010001
SPRINT26.326
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-22000000
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-11000000
SPRINT26.735
E. QueroE. QueroC
0-11000000
Team6-32321611311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. SchultzN. Schultz★SP
5.1533061
B. EisertB. EisertRP
0.2000000
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.0100020
T. RichardsT. RichardsRP
1.0233111
Team8.0866192
SEA

SEA

23-26

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-33000001
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44111101
SPRINT28.688
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-44121002
SPRINT26.941
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
3-44131000
SPRINT23.81
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-33000001
C. JoeC. Joe★RF
0-33000002
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-44000000
C. EmersonC. Emerson★3B
1-44113101
J. PeredaJ. Pereda★C
1-33110000
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-11000001
Team8-3333686219
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
6.0300280
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
0.2211111
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.1100010
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000010
Team9.06113111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SEA

  • A. Munoz
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SL
      82%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      9%·98.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      9%·98.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

1

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 2-1

May 19CHWCHW1@SEASEA6today
May 20CHWCHW2@SEASEA1
May 20CHWCHW4@SEASEA5

Season series

Series tied 2-2

May 8SEASEA12@CHWCHW8
May 9SEASEA1@CHWCHW6
May 10SEASEA1@CHWCHW2
May 19CHWCHW1@SEASEA6today
May 20CHWCHW2@SEASEA1
May 20CHWCHW4@SEASEA5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+13443%
SEASEA-16262%

↗6· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 8pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHWCHW
M. Murakami

M. Murakami

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

N. Schultz

N. Schultz

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 5 H

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat CHW 6-1.

Win probability

SEA vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 81% WP

Rodr · íguez homered to right center (396 feet).

SEATop 3rd Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 77% WP

Vargas · struck out swinging.

CHWTop 8th Inning · 1-3
+7pp→ 17% WP

Murakami · reached on infield single to shortstop.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0000001001
SEA10100103—6

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · SEA won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Rodr 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Arozarena 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Naylor 1

1
0

Inn 7

Peters 1

0
3

Inn 8

Emerson 3

0

Inn 9

CHW
SEA

Play-by-play · 567 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  2. T9

    Romo struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  6. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Drew Romo

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  7. T9

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  8. T9

    Peters fouled out to third.

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  13. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Tristan Peters

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  14. T9

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  15. T9

    Kelenic flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  19. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Jarred Kelenic

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  20. T9

    Muñoz relieved Ferrer

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  21. T9

    Raley in right field.

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  22. T9

    Canzone as designated hitter.

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  25. B8

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  26. B8

    Pereda flied out to right.

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 6

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

1

Runs

6

6

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

9

TB

16

1

HR

2

3

BB

1

11

K

9

12

LOB

18

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7·CHW +134/SEA -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.77

CLV pp

Open price

+149

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SEA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    2.5± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    52.6%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.0%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.6%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.