MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

DET

22-36

PregameSat, 2:10 PM EDT

CHW

30-27

ATS/DET -1.5O/U/8ML/DET-136

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

6-4

CHW +1.3 vs DET -1.2 margin

CHW brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CHW no-vig %

44.9%

open 47.8% · -2.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Framber Valdez

SP · #59

2-3

W-L

4.28

ERA

1.33

WHIP

61.0

Last 3 starts

@BAL-6.0 IP1 ER5 K

vsCLEL(2-3)5.0 IP4 ER3 K

@NYM-6.2 IP2 ER7 K

Home starter

Anthony Kay

SP · #18

4-1

W-L

3.96

ERA

1.39

WHIP

52.1

Last 3 starts

vsMINW(4-1)6.0 IP1 ER5 K

@SEA-5.1 IP1 ER5 K

vsKCW(3-1)6.0 IP2 ER4 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money-136 / +113

Model edge

Win prob35% / 65%

LeanHome · 15pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesCHW lead series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take CHW on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

+113Bet CHW ML↗+113Bet CHW ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

CHW vs DET.

CHW enters on a 3-game win streak; DET is 3-7 over its last 10.

64.8%

model · CHW win prob

Recent form

CHW6–4+1.3
DET3–7-1.2

Situational

CHW1d restB2B
DET1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. CHW has 0 straight road games; DET has 1.

Model angle

+17.9ppon CHW

CHW's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▲Venue split+1.5pp
▼Line steam-1.2pp

Players to watch

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.1total bases · ±1.8
Munetaka Murakami · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.1 vs season 2.
Grant TaylorCHW
1.7strikeouts · ±1.1
Grant Taylor · 1.7 K · last-10 1.7 vs season 1.8.
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.6total bases · ±1.7
Chase Meidroth · 1.6 TB · last-10 1.7 vs season 1.4.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

CHW is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-29DET @ CHW3–4

Line move

open +100→+113toward DET

The market has moved 3.1pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.4%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
62.8%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.2%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.9%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like CHW.

CHW's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+17.9

pp edge · CHW

-2.93

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on CHW

64.7%

±4.6pp band

5u large — +17.8pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+19.8pp

+1.9pp post-cal

Kelly

33.5%

5.0% sized

Decimal

2.13

+17.8pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 17.9pp · CHW over DET

▲
Model confidence90% conf
CHW clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Venue split70% conf
CHW's venue form is 53.3pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▼
Line steam77% conf
The market moved 2.9pp away from CHW since open.
-1.2pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
CHW is 4-1 over its last 5; DET is 1-4.
+1.2pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
CHW has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market faded the model hard

Player projections

CHW vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts