Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at CON?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7WSH

WSH

6-7

8881

CON

2-14

WNBAWed, Jun 17FinalSeriesWSH leads series 1-0VegasCON -2.5

WSH · top performer

Sonia Citron

G · #22

22.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CON · top performer

Aneesah Morrow

F · #24

10.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ CON

Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 2:53

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. OnyenwereF · #12	32	22	8-12	4-4	2-2	+11	3	0
A. DugalicF · #32	27	6	3-7	0-3	—	-2	2	3
L. BettsC · #51	32	13	2-7	—	9-10	+12	7	3
S. CitronG · #22	38	26	7-13	0-4	12-12	+9	11	4
G. AmooreG · #8	19	10	3-5	2-4	2-2	+4	0	2
Bench
L. OlsenG · #33	20	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	+3	2	2
C. McMahonG · #23	21	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	+4	6	4
C. ProsperG · #18	10	3	1-2	1-1	—	-6	2	0
Team		88	26-55	7-18	29-30		33	18
DNP: K. Iriafen, S. Austin, R. Harmon, D. Littlepage-Buggs, A. Florez

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	18	9	2-5	—	5-7	-5	3	1
D. MillerF · #1	12	7	3-5	1-3	—	+1	0	0
B. GrinerC · #42	23	6	3-7	0-1	—	-6	3	1
S. RiversG · #22	21	6	3-7	0-2	—	-8	2	1
L. LacanG · #47	28	11	5-14	0-4	1-1	-5	2	4
Bench
A. MorrowF · #24	21	11	5-11	0-2	1-2	+2	10	2
R. BeersF · #15	7	2	1-1	—	—	+2	1	1
N. AnglomaF · #33	14	4	1-5	0-2	2-4	-1	2	1
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	10	5	2-2	—	1-2	-3	0	1
K. BurkeG · #25	22	10	3-5	2-4	2-4	-2	0	0
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	19	10	3-5	1-1	3-3	-4	2	4
G. KneepkensG · #5	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-6	1	0
Team		81	31-68	4-20	15-23		26	16
DNP: H. Van Lith, A. Jackson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CON

Home

26-55

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-68

FG %

7-18

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-20

29-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

Jun 17

WSH88@

CON81today

Jun 26

WSH@

CONupcoming

Jul 28

CON@

WSHupcoming

Sep 22

CON@

WSHupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CON -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

159.5

Defensive · -5.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.4h

Moneyline

WSH+10549%

CON-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CON -2.5↗SpreadBet CON -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

-1.0 since open

Total

159.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat CON 88-81. S. Citron paced them with 26 PTS, 11 REB, 4 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 23 REB · 12 AST

GS 59

Bench(3)

11 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 7

CONstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

39 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST

GS 26

Bench(7)

42 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 33

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CON1st Quarter · 6:46 · 6-8

+12pp→ 51% WP

Cotie McMahon · enters the game for Georgia Amoore

WSH4th Quarter · 5:01 · 70-70

+10pp→ 70% WP

Raegan Beers · personal foul

WSH4th Quarter · 2:53 · 79-74

+13pp→ 88% WP

Michaela Onyenwere · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Angela Dugalic assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	18	18	27	25	88
CON	14	15	29	23	81

Period scoring

WSH won 3 · CON won 1

Onyenwere 8

Morrow 6

Amoore 8

Morrow 4

Betts 8

Leger-Walker 6

Citron 11

Lacan 9

WSH

CON

Shooting comparison

WSH

CON

47%

26-55

46%

31-68

39%

7-18

3PT

20%

4-20

97%

29-30

65%

15-23

Play-by-play · 387 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 88·CON 81
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 88·CON 81
Q4·21.5
Sonia Citron defensive rebound
WSH 88·CON 81
Q4·21.5
Michaela Onyenwere vs. Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sonia Citron gains possession)
· ·
WSH 88·CON 81
Q4·24.3
Leila Lacan misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 88·CON 81
−1pp
Q4·31.4
Sun timeout
WSH 88·CON 81
Q4·31.4
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 88·CON 81
+1pp
Q4·31.4
Cotie McMahon enters the game for Georgia Amoore
·
WSH 87·CON 81
Q4·31.4
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 87·CON 81
Q4·31.4
Charlisse Leger-Walker personal foul
WSH 86·CON 81
−3pp
Q4·35.2
Mystics Full timeout
WSH 86·CON 81
Q4·35.2
Diamond Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brittney Griner assists)
·
WSH 86·CON 81
+3pp
Q4·45.6
Lauren Betts bad pass turnover (Diamond Miller steals)
·
WSH 86·CON 78
+0.6pp
Q4·58.0
Sonia Citron offensive rebound
WSH 86·CON 78
−0.8pp
Q4·1:01
Sonia Citron misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 86·CON 78
Q4·1:25
Leila Lacan makes free throw 1 of 1
WSH 86·CON 78
−0.8pp
Q4·1:25
Sonia Citron shooting foul
WSH 86·CON 77
+2pp
Q4·1:25
Leila Lacan makes 3-foot layup (Charlisse Leger-Walker assists)
·
WSH 86·CON 77
Q4·1:29
Aneesah Morrow enters the game for Kennedy Burke
·
WSH 86·CON 75
Q4·1:29
Sun Full timeout
WSH 86·CON 75
Q4·1:29
Sonia Citron makes 1-foot layup (Lauren Betts assists)
·
WSH 86·CON 75
Q4·1:43
Kennedy Burke makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 84·CON 75
Q4·1:43
Sun offensive team rebound
WSH 84·CON 74
−0.5pp
Q4·1:43
Kennedy Burke misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 84·CON 74
−0.8pp
Q4·1:43
Angela Dugalic shooting foul
WSH 84·CON 74
+2pp
Q4·1:52
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 1
WSH 84·CON 74
Q4·1:52
Diamond Miller shooting foul
WSH 83·CON 74
−0.9pp
Q4·1:52
Sonia Citron makes driving layup
WSH 83·CON 74
−0.8pp
Q4·2:12
Brittney Griner offensive foul turnover
WSH 81·CON 74
Q4·2:12
Brittney Griner offensive foul
WSH 81·CON 74
−2pp

Betting line

CON -2.5·O/U 159.5·WSH +105/CON -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ashington Mystics went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 88–81.

WSH +2.5 cashed (CON lost outright). Total cleared the 159.5 OVER by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

WSH

CON

eFG%

shooting

53.6%

48.5%

TOV%

ball control

16.0%

6.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

17.4%

19.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

52.7%

22.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Sonia CitronWSH · G
TS%.63984
Saniya RiversCON · G
AST/TO2.179

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

11.3%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
30.8%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
31.1%
P(CON win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
33.1%
P(CON win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-4.79

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-192

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at CON?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+34.3pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

WSH

★ best

-140DraftKings

edge +34.3pp · implied 55.1%

CON

no live price

Book	WSH	CON	Best edge
DraftKings	-140★	+110	+34.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CON vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Sonia CitronWSH
15.6± 6.8medium
Kiki IriafenWSH
15.1± 9.5low
Shakira AustinWSH
13.9± 7.2low

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowCON
10.1± 5.0medium
Kiki IriafenWSH
8.0± 5.3low
Shakira AustinWSH
7.9± 4.1low

Assists

Leila LacanCON
4.8± 2.8low
Sonia CitronWSH
3.9± 2.9medium
Georgia AmooreWSH
3.7± 2.8medium

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.5± 1.6low
Shakira AustinWSH
1.2± 1.3low
Saniya RiversCON
0.9± 1.0medium

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.6± 1.4low
Sonia CitronWSH
1.4± 1.6medium
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

WSH

league avg

CON

44.9%

FG%

◀

44.6

42.6%

29.4%

3PT %

◀

33.4

26.0%

82.2

PPG

◀

85.7

79.2

18.9

Assists / G

18.0

18.7

15.6

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

13.4

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Fatou Cissoko-Stephens

Referee

Teresa Stuck

Referee

Marcy Williams

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Data via ESPN · wehoop