Starter edge
4.05 ERA
Grant Holmes vs Adrian Houser - 5.54 ERA
Holmes owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving ATL cleaner opening script tonight.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves
SF
SF
29-43
PregameTue, 7:15 PM EDT
ATL
ATL
46-25
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 9.59
A. Houser
2-6 · 5.54 ERA
vs
G. Holmes
4-2 · 4.05 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Line movement
200 snapshots
ATL spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
ATL no-vig %
59.1%
open 58.3% · +0.9
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Adrian Houser
SP · #12
2-6
W-L
5.54
ERA
1.54
WHIP
46
K
65.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsWSHL(2-6)4.1 IP3 ER6 K
@MIL-4.1 IP2 ER5 K
@COLL(2-5)3.2 IP4 ER4 K
Home starter
Grant Holmes
SP · #66
4-2
W-L
4.05
ERA
1.34
WHIP
59
K
66.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHW-3.2 IP3 ER2 K
vsTORW(4-2)6.0 IP2 ER4 K
@CIN-4.2 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money+144 / -175
Model edge
Win prob35% / 65%
LeanHome · 15pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
No prior meetings logged this season yet.
Place a bet
Take ATL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
SF
- 1.L. Arraez2B
- 2.B. EldridgeDH
- 3.M. Chapman3B
- 4.R. Devers1B
- 5.J. LeeRF
- 6.W. AdamesSS
- 7.C. SchmittLF
- 8.D. GilbertCF
- 9.D. SusacC
ATL
- 1.D. BaldwinC
- 2.M. Harris IICF
- 3.M. Olson1B
- 4.O. Albies2B
- 5.D. SmithDH
- 6.M. DubonLF
- 7.A. Riley3B
- 8.M. YastrzemskiRF
- 9.H. KimSS
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs SF.
ATL is 5-5 recently; SF is 5-5.
65.3%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL5–5-0.3
- SF5–5+1.0
Situational
- ATL2d rest
- SF2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATL has 5 straight road games; SF has 0.
Model angle
+4.5ppon ATL
ATL's edge is mostly venue split plus line steam. Model confidence is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
- ▲Venue split+0.8pp
- ▼Model confidence-0.5pp
Players to watch
- Matt ChapmanSF2.6total bases · ±3.6
Matt Chapman · 2.6 TB · last-10 3.3 vs season 1.5.
- Bryce EldridgeSF2.4total bases · ±2.1
Bryce Eldridge · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.7 vs season 1.8.
- Drake BaldwinATL2.2total bases · ±2.0
Drake Baldwin · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 2.1.
Line move
open -156→-162toward ATL
The market has moved 0.9pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
65.4%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
63.2%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.9%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.27 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs SF.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
121
projections · 74 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.4± 2.1low
- Landen RouppSF5.8± 2.1low
- Logan WebbSF5.3± 1.8low
Hits
- Jung Hoo LeeSF1.6± 1.4high
- Bryce EldridgeSF1.4± 1.0high
- Luis ArraezSF1.4± 0.7high
Total bases
- Matt ChapmanSF2.6± 3.6high
- Bryce EldridgeSF2.4± 2.1high
- Drake BaldwinATL2.2± 2.0high
RBIs
- Matt ChapmanSF1.3± 2.4high
- Drake BaldwinATL0.8± 0.8high
- Mauricio DubonATL0.7± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Adrian HouserSF3.1± 2.7low
- Robbie RaySF2.8± 3.5low
- Landen RouppSF2.7± 3.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SF
league avg
ATL
.725
OPS
.717
▶.744
.309
OBP
.319
▶.320
4.11
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.06
4.52
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.29
1.40
WHIP
1.31
▶1.18
8.1
K / 9
8.5
▶8.8
The One model★ Lock
Tue, Jun 16SF
Giants
38-42
vs65.3%ATL
ATL★
Braves
53-28
SF 34.7%win prob65.3% ATL
ATL 1565 · SF 1495Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
