MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIN

CHW

32-28

MIN

28-33

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 977 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

12,525 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIN no-vig %

60.3%

open 60.8% · -0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.2%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
48.4%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.9%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.9%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.38

CLV pp

Open price

+144

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

40.6%

Market came to the model

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.0pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHW

★ best

+119DraftKings

edge +17.0pp · implied 43.6%

MIN

no live price

Book	CHW	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+119★	-144	+17.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.5± 2.9low
Taj BradleyMIN
6.5± 3.1low
Zebby MatthewsMIN
6.0± 1.1low

Hits

Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.7high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
1.0± 0.9high
Tristan PetersCHW
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.1± 1.9high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
1.9± 2.0high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Brooks LeeMIN
0.8± 1.3high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 0.8high
Edgar QueroCHW
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.0± 4.0low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.9± 2.8low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

CHW 6 · MIN 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	2	6
MIN	1	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
S. Antonacci★LF	2-5	5	2	2	0	0	0	0	0.4
SPRINT28.175
M. VargasMulti-HR game★3B	3-5	5	2	3	4	2	0	0	1.7
SPRINT28.381
A. Benintendi★DH	2-4	4	1	2	2	1	1	1	6.8
SPRINT26.632
C. Montgomery★SS	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	3	12.5
C. Meidroth★2B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	3.1
J. Gonzalez★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	4	4.6
T. Peters★CF	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	3.6
SPRINT28.586
E. Quero★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.2
R. Nishida★OF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	7.0
Team	11-39	39	6	11	6	3	1	11	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

S. Antonacci★LF

2-5

0.4

M. Vargas★3B

3-5

1.7

A. Benintendi★DH

2-4

6.8

C. Montgomery★SS

0-5

12.5

C. Meidroth★2B

1-4

3.1

J. Gonzalez★SS

0-4

4.6

T. Peters★CF

2-4

3.6

E. Quero★C

0-4

4.2

R. Nishida★OF

1-4

7.0

Team

11-39

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
D. Sandlin★SP	4.0	8	8	8	4	4	1	37.2
T. DavisRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	8.3
B. EisertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.2
T. RichardsRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.1
Team	8.0	10	9	9	4	6	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

D. Sandlin★SP

4.0

37.2

T. DavisRP

1.0

8.3

B. EisertRP

1.0

0.2

T. RichardsRP

2.0

0.1

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
B. Buxton★CF	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	2	5.0
B. Lee★SS	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	10.0
K. Clemens★1B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	19.6
J. Bell★DH	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	2	8.9
SPRINT25.18
T. Larnach★LF	2-3	3	1	2	1	0	1	0	19.3
SPRINT26.632
A. Martin★RF	1-4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	23.4
SPRINT27.867
V. Caratini★C	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	1	22.4
SPRINT24.22
L. Keaschall★2B	0-2	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	26.5
T. Gray★3B	1-3	3	1	1	5	1	0	0	25.2
SPRINT26.428

Team	10-31	31	9	10	9	1	4	6	—

Batting

Analytics

Player