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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CHC
CHC

CHC

29-16

10
5
CHW

CHW

22-22

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
38,723 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHW no-vig %

41.9%

open 42.8% · -0.9

+2.0-0.5CHW SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL46.8%37.7%CHW NO-VIG %MODEL 38.9%May 14, 4 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 10 · CHW 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC10012024010
CHW0100210015

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.0pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

CHC

★ best
-162DraftKings

edge +3.0pp · implied 58.1%

CHW

no live price

BookCHCCHWBest edge
DraftKings-162★+124+3.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 17, 26sim 97
    168
    4(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 96
    812
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 95
    257
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 95
    163
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 94
    51
    15(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 93
    55
    15(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1/VegasCHC -126

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 10–5.

CHC -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Carson Kelly

Carson Kelly

C

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

0

R

4

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Miguel Vargas

Miguel Vargas

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC29-16
10
5
CHW22-22
CHC29-16·CHW22-22
CHC

CHC

29-16

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-66110000
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44211021
SPRINT25.716
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-55320010
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-44121011
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
2-44221012
SPRINT27.457
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
1-33010001
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
3-55034001
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-55011002
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-55110001
Team14-414110149069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. CabreraE. Cabrera★SP
4.2333321
R. RolisonR. RolisonRP
0.1211101
T. ThorntonT. ThorntonRP
2.0000020
J. AssadJ. AssadSP
2.0311011
Team9.0855453
CHW

CHW

22-22

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
0-44000011
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-44121100
SPRINT28.381
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
2-44121101
SPRINT26.326
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-22100020
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-11100010
J. KelenicJ. Kelenic★RF
1-44111102
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-44001000
D. RomoD. Romo★C
2-44021000
SPRINT26.326
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-22000000
Team8-3333585345
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BurkeS. Burke★SP
4.1844150
T. RichardsT. RichardsRP
0.2000010
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0000020
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.0422000
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
0.2144410
T. SchweitzerT. SchweitzerRP
1.1100100
Team9.0141010690

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • E. Cabrera
    88 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      28%·92.7 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.0 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      17%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      16%·85.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Assad
    39 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      5%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·85.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      3%·82.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Thornton
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      31%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·81.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      8%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Rolison
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.8 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      20%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·84.3 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • S. Burke
    91 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·88.4 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      19%·80.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      12%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hicks
    35 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      57%·88.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      37%·99.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·99.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hudson
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      87%·93.2 mph·9% whiff
    • ST
      13%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Schweitzer
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      29%·89.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      24%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      40%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·98.9 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      27%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Richards
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      57%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      43%·93.1 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

8

10

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

May 15CHCCHC10@CHWCHW5today
May 16CHCCHC3@CHWCHW8
May 17CHCCHC8@CHWCHW9

Season series

CHC lead series 1-0

May 15CHCCHC10@CHWCHW5today
May 16CHCCHC3@CHWCHW8
May 17CHCCHC8@CHWCHW9
Aug 18CHWCHW@CHCCHCupcoming
Aug 19CHWCHW@CHCCHCupcoming
Aug 19CHWCHW@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC-12656%
CHWCHW+10449%

↗5· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 7th Inning

CHCCHC
C. Kelly

C. Kelly

C

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1.200 OPS

E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

CHWCHW
M. Vargas

M. Vargas

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat CHW 10-5. Kelly's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 46% WP

Montgomery · homered to right center (381 feet).

CHWBottom 6th Inning · 4-4
+17pp→ 51% WP

Vargas · homered to right (348 feet).

CHCTop 7th Inning · 5-4
+18pp→ 75% WP

Kelly · reached on infield single to third, Bregman scored, Shaw to second, Suzuki to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC10012024010
CHW0100210015

Period scoring

CHC won 4 · CHW won 3

1
0

Inn 1

Happ 1

0
1

Inn 2

Montgomery 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Kelly 1

2
2

Inn 5

Busch 1

Peters 1

0
1

Inn 6

Vargas 1

2
0

Inn 7

Kelly 1

4
0

Inn 8

Kelly 2

0
1

Inn 9

Kelenic 1

CHC
CHW

Play-by-play · 668 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  3. B9

    Antonacci grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Romo out at second.

    · ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

    −0.8pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  11. B9

    Javier Assad pitches to Sam Antonacci

    · ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  12. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  13. B9

    Romo singled to right.

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

    +0.5pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  17. B9

    Javier Assad pitches to Drew Romo

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  18. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  19. B9

    Peters flied out to center.

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  24. B9

    Javier Assad pitches to Tristan Peters

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  25. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  26. B9

    Kelenic homered to center (446 feet).

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 4

  29. B9

    Javier Assad pitches to Jarred Kelenic

    ·

    CHC 10·CHW 5

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 10·CHW 4

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

10

Runs

5

14

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

18

TB

19

0

HR

3

6

BB

4

9

K

5

19

LOB

17

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 8.5·CHC -126/CHW +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.07

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

CHW vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    48.8%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.9%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.4%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.