MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Benintendi singled to left, Antonacci scored, Vargas to second. → win prob 64→72% CHW

TOP 5TH+5CHW

CHW

33-30

PHI

34-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 974 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 50-00 outs

Pitcher· PHI

A. Painter

4.0 IP, 3 K, 6 ER

Batter· CHW

C. Montgomery

1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

71.6%

CHW wins · current

Pre-game: 53.1% PHI

CHW 6 · 1 PHI

CHW +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsPHI leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCHWTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 72% WP
Benintendi · singled to left, Antonacci scored, Vargas to second.

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.29

B. Eisert

1-0 · 3.55 ERA

A. Painter

1-6 · 5.74 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

PHI no-vig %

54.2%

open 55.1% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
54.1%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.4%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.1%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-53.1ppvs pre-game · CHW favored

Leverage

±2.3

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+28.7pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

CHW

no live price

PHI

★ best

+285DraftKings

edge +28.7pp · implied 24.4%

Book	CHW	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	-412	+285★	+28.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

PHI vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.0± 3.2low
Davis MartinCHW
6.1± 3.5low
Zack WheelerPHI
6.0± 2.5low

Hits

Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 1.4high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.2± 1.9high
Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 3.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Miguel VargasCHW
0.9± 1.5high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 1.0high
Chase MeidrothCHW
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 2.6low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.2± 2.9low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.7± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

CHW

White Sox

40-29

vs53.1%PHI

PHI★

Phillies

39-36

CHW 46.9%win prob53.1% PHI

PHI 1523 · CHW 1519Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
S. AntonacciLF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	11.7
M. Vargas3B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	1	17.8
A. BenintendiDH	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	0	1	13.6
C. MontgomerySS	1-1	1	2	1	1	1	1	0	17.2
C. Meidroth2B	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	1.0
J. GonzalezSS	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	0	0	4.1
T. PetersCF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	4.0
D. RomoC	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.6
R. NishidaRF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1.8
Team	6-18	18	6	6	6	2	2	3	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H-AB

RBI

WP±

S. AntonacciLF

0-2

11.7

M. Vargas3B

1-2

17.8

A. BenintendiDH

1-3

13.6

C. MontgomerySS

1-1

17.2

C. Meidroth2B

0-2

1.0

J. GonzalezSS

1-2

4.1

T. PetersCF

1-2

4.0

D. RomoC

0-2

1.6

R. NishidaRF

1-2

1.8

Team

6-18

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
B. EisertRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	5.3
S. BurkeSP	2.2	1	1	1	2	4	1	2.9
Team	4.0	2	1	1	2	6	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

WP±

B. EisertRP

1.1

5.3

S. BurkeSP

2.2

2.9

Team

4.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
K. SchwarberDH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	2.2
T. TurnerSS	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	2.4
B. Harper1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	3.5
A. Bohm3B	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	1.4
B. MarshLF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.0
J.T. RealmutoC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	2.5
B. Stott2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.8
A. GarciaRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.0
J. CrawfordCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.8
Team	2-14	14	1	2	1	1	2	6	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
A. PainterSP	4.0	6	6	6	2	3	2	27.3
Team	4.0	6	6	6	2	3	2	—

Team	1	2	3	4	5	R
CHW	4	0	2	0	0	6
PHI	0	0	0	1	—	1

Team

CHW

PHI

—