Park factor
95 total idx
T-Mobile Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners
BAL
BAL
34-39
PregameWed, 9:40 PM EDT
SEA
SEA
37-36
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketT-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
Line movement
7 snapshots
SEA spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
SEA no-vig %
57.2%
open 57.2%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Kyle Bradish
SP · #38
3-7
W-L
4.30
ERA
1.57
WHIP
73
K
73.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSEA-4.0 IP5 ER5 K
@TORL(3-7)4.0 IP5 ER3 K
vsTORW(3-6)7.0 IP0 ER4 K
Home starter
George Kirby
SP · #68
5-6
W-L
4.07
ERA
1.31
WHIP
74
K
84.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@BALL(5-6)6.0 IP3 ER10 K
vsNYML(5-5)4.0 IP4 ER5 K
vsARI-5.1 IP4 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+123 / -149
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 2-2
TypeRegular Season Series
Place a bet
Take SEA on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
SEA vs BAL.
SEA is 4-6 recently; BAL is 4-6.
61.3%
model · SEA win prob
Recent form
- SEA4–6-1.0
- BAL4–6+0.4
Situational
- SEA3d rest
- BAL3d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SEA has 10 straight road games; BAL has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.4pp
Players to watch
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.2total bases · ±2.4
Pete Alonso · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.8.
- Colt EmersonSEA2.1total bases · ±1.8
Colt Emerson · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.9.
- J.P. CrawfordSEA2.1total bases · ±2.9
J.P. Crawford · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.6 vs season 1.4.
Head-to-head · 2-2 · last 4
SEA is 2-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-08SEA @ BAL6–3
- 2026-06-09SEA @ BAL6–5
- 2026-06-10SEA @ BAL2–7
- 2026-06-11SEA @ BAL5–7
Line move
open -149→-149flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
60.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.2%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.9%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.12 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 87 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Bryce MillerSEA6.0± 3.0low
- Bryan WooSEA5.8± 4.0low
- Logan GilbertSEA5.8± 2.5low
Hits
- Blaze AlexanderBAL1.2± 1.0high
- Cole YoungSEA1.2± 0.8high
- Adley RutschmanBAL1.1± 1.3high
Total bases
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.2± 2.4high
- Colt EmersonSEA2.1± 1.8high
- J.P. CrawfordSEA2.1± 2.9high
RBIs
- Adley RutschmanBAL1.0± 1.6high
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.9± 0.9high
- Colt EmersonSEA0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Trevor RogersBAL3.7± 2.4low
- Bryan WooSEA3.1± 3.9low
- Trey GibsonBAL2.8± 2.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
SEA
.728
OPS
◀
.717
.713
.324
OBP
◀
.319
.316
4.70
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.26
4.59
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.69
1.40
WHIP
1.31
▶1.20
7.8
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One modelEdge
Wed, Jun 17BAL
Orioles
38-49
vs61.2%SEA
SEA★
Mariners
44-44
BAL 38.8%win prob61.2% SEA
SEA 1513 · BAL 1467Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
