Park factor
103 total idx
Great American Ball Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
NYM
NYM
32-40
PregameWed, 12:40 PM EDT
CIN
CIN
34-37
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketGreat American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Line movement
7 snapshots
CIN spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
CIN no-vig %
45.8%
open 46.8% · -1.0
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Nolan McLean
SP · #26
3-4
W-L
4.01
ERA
1.14
WHIP
88
K
76.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsATL-4.0 IP2 ER6 K
@SD-6.0 IP1 ER5 K
vsMIAW(3-4)5.0 IP1 ER2 K
Home starter
Nick Lodolo
SP · #40
2-1
W-L
5.21
ERA
1.45
WHIP
30
K
38.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsARI-5.1 IP2 ER5 K
@STL-5.0 IP4 ER3 K
vsATLW(2-1)6.2 IP3 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money-131 / +109
Model edge
Win prob48% / 52%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesCIN leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
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Scouting report · pre-game
CIN vs NYM.
CIN is 3-7 recently; NYM is 5-5.
52.2%
model · CIN win prob
Recent form
- CIN3–7-0.5
- NYM5–5-1.0
Situational
- CIN2d rest
- NYM2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CIN has 0 straight road games; NYM has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Bo BichetteNYM2.5total bases · ±2.5
Bo Bichette · 2.5 TB · last-10 3.1 vs season 1.5.
- JJ BledayCIN2.1total bases · ±1.8
JJ Bleday · 2.1 TB · last-10 2 vs season 2.2.
- Eugenio SuarezCIN1.8total bases · ±2.6
Eugenio Suarez · 1.8 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.4.
Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4
CIN is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-05-25CIN @ NYM7–2
- 2026-05-26CIN @ NYM7–2
- 2026-05-27CIN @ NYM2–4
- 2026-06-15NYM @ CIN0–12
Line move
open +104→+109toward NYM
The market has moved 1.2pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
51.4%
ensemble · CIN favored
Elo Static
52.8%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.3%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.6%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.66 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CIN vs NYM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 84 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chase BurnsCIN7.1± 2.8low
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.1± 2.7low
- Freddy PeraltaNYM5.3± 2.9medium
Hits
- Bo BichetteNYM1.3± 1.0high
- Blake DunnCIN1.1± 0.9high
- Carson BengeNYM1.0± 1.5high
Total bases
- Bo BichetteNYM2.5± 2.5high
- JJ BledayCIN2.1± 1.8high
- Eugenio SuarezCIN1.8± 2.6high
RBIs
- Eugenio SuarezCIN0.8± 1.8high
- Bo BichetteNYM0.8± 1.9high
- JJ BledayCIN0.7± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Kodai SengaNYM4.0± 3.2low
- Chris PaddackCIN3.2± 2.4low
- Nick LodoloCIN3.1± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYM
league avg
CIN
.663
OPS
.717
▶.710
.295
OBP
.319
▶.313
3.96
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.29
4.00
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.60
1.28
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.46
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.9
The One modelTossup
Wed, Jun 17NYM
Mets
35-43
vs52.1%CIN
CIN★
Reds
40-41
NYM 47.9%win prob52.1% CIN
CIN 1476 · NYM 1481Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
