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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHW
CHC

CHC

29-18

8
9
CHW

CHW

24-22

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
38,608 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHW no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

+2.0+1.0CHW SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL47.7%39.7%CHW NO-VIG %May 16, 6 PMMay 17, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHC 8 · CHW 9 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
CHC30010000318
CHW01012003029

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+38.9pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHC

no live price

CHW

★ best
—DraftKings

edge +38.9pp · implied 0.0%

BookCHCCHWBest edge
DraftKings+1700—★+38.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 15, 26sim 97
    1610
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 95
    812
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 92
    55
    15(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 92
    257
    29(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 92
    257
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 92
    258
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.99

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+119

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, May 17·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1/VegasCHC -132

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Chicago Cubs, 9–8. It came down to the final possession.

CHW +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto

RF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Andrew Benintendi

Andrew Benintendi

DH

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
CHC29-18
8
9
CHW24-22
CHC29-18·CHW24-22
CHC

CHC

29-18

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44110020
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44112121
SPRINT25.716
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-55222010
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-55000012
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-66110002
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
2-44123110
SPRINT2622
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-33010010
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-33000000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33210011
SPRINT27.867
M. AmayaM. AmayaC
0-11000000
Team9-3838897296
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
4.2644140
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.1100030
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.1100020
P. MatonP. MatonRP
0.2233101
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0100100
R. RolisonR. RolisonRP
0.1121001
Team9.11298392
CHW

CHW

24-22

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
1-33010001
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-55110001
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-44112001
SPRINT28.381
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44110012
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-55100001
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
3-33131010
SPRINT26.632
E. QueroE. Quero★C
3-55233102
SPRINT24.12
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
1-33213110
SPRINT28.586
D. HillD. Hill★RF
0-44000001
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
1-11010000
L. AcunaL. AcunaCF
0-11000000
Team12-38389129239
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. FeddeE. Fedde★SP
3.0644421
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
2.0200010
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
2.0000010
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.0000100
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0132111
T. DavisT. DavisRP
1.0010310
Team10.0986962

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • C. Rea
    83 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      63%·93.9 mph·5% whiff
    • FS
      11%·88.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.8 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.6 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Webb
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      38%·85.4 mph·57% whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.9 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      50%·86.6 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      28%·79.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      11%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Maton
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      44%·83.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      33%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·75.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·90.5 mph·— whiff
  • D. Palencia
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      86%·99.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·90.7 mph·— whiff
  • R. Rolison
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      100%·95.0 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • E. Fedde
    92 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      41%·81.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      35%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      1%·95.0 mph·— whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      31%·97.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      25%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·85.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      16%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      3%·83.9 mph·— whiff
  • G. Taylor
    25 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      48%·98.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      32%·83.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      12%·100.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·90.7 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    21 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      29%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hudson
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      79%·91.8 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      21%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Davis
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      63%·96.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      38%·86.3 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

12

8

Runs

9

1

Errors

1

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

May 15CHCCHC10@CHWCHW5
May 16CHCCHC3@CHWCHW8
May 17CHCCHC8@CHWCHW9today

Season series

CHW lead series 2-1

May 15CHCCHC10@CHWCHW5
May 16CHCCHC3@CHWCHW8
May 17CHCCHC8@CHWCHW9today
Aug 18CHWCHW@CHCCHCupcoming
Aug 19CHWCHW@CHCCHCupcoming
Aug 19CHWCHW@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC-13257%
CHWCHW+10948%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 49pp · Bottom 10th Inning

CHCCHC
M. Conforto

M. Conforto

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

CHWCHW
R. Grichuk

R. Grichuk

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

E. Fedde

E. Fedde

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

How it ended

CHW beat CHC 9-8. Quero's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).

Win probability

CHW vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 8th Inning · 4-7
+43pp→ 97% WP

Peters · homered to right (359 feet), Benintendi scored and Quero scored.

CHCTop 9th Inning · 7-7
+35pp→ 45% WP

Conforto · homered to center (414 feet), Bregman scored and Suzuki scored.

CHWBottom 10th Inning · 8-9
+49pp→ 100% WP

Quero · homered to center (407 feet), Meidroth scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
CHC30010000318
CHW01012003029

Period scoring

CHC won 2 · CHW won 4

3
0

Inn 1

Busch 2

0
1

Inn 2

Quero 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

Bregman 1

Benintendi 1

0
2

Inn 5

Vargas 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
3

Inn 8

Peters 3

3
0

Inn 9

Conforto 3

1
2

Inn 10

Bregman 1

Quero 2

CHC
CHW

Play-by-play · 720 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    CHC 8·CHW 9

  2. B10

    Quero homered to center (407 feet), Meidroth scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 9

    +49pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 9

  4. B10

    Ryan Rolison pitches to Edgar Quero

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 9

  5. B10

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  6. B10

    Cubs challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Andrew Benintendi out on a sacrifice bunt, first baseman Michael Busch to second baseman Nico Hoerner. Chase Meidroth to 3rd.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

    +10pp

  7. B10

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  8. B10

    Ryan Rolison pitches to Andrew Benintendi

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  9. B10

    Rolison relieved Palencia

    ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  10. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  11. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  12. T10

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  13. T10

    Suzuki struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

    +10pp

  14. T10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  15. T10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  16. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  17. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  18. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  19. T10

    Tyler Davis pitches to Seiya Suzuki

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  20. T10

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  21. T10

    Happ intentionally walked.

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

    −1pp

  22. T10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  23. T10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  24. T10

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  25. T10

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  26. T10

    Tyler Davis pitches to Ian Happ

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  27. T10

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  28. T10

    Bregman grounded out to shortstop, Swanson scored, Busch to second, Hoerner to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

    −8pp

  29. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 8·CHW 7

  30. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 7·CHW 7

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

8

Runs

9

9

Hits

12

1

Errors

1

16

TB

21

2

HR

2

9

BB

3

6

K

9

28

LOB

16

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 9·CHC -132/CHW +109

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CHW vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    49.4%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.6%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.0%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175