MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CHW

LAD

45-27

CHW

38-32

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

38,507 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

CHW no-vig %

36.9%

open 36.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.0%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
45.9%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.8%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.3%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.13

CLV pp

Open price

+159

Close price

+158

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

37.0%

Line barely moved

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.9pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

LAD

no live price

CHW

★ best

+168DraftKings

edge +6.9pp · implied 35.7%

Book	LAD	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	-205	+168★	+6.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHW vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Davis MartinCHW
6.3± 3.1low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.5± 3.7low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.2± 0.8high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.9± 1.6high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
2.3± 3.5low
Miguel VargasCHW
2.2± 3.0high

RBIs

Braden MontgomeryCHW
1.0± 1.9low
Ryan WardLAD
1.0± 1.7low
Miguel VargasCHW
0.9± 1.3high

Earned runs

Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.7± 2.6low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.6± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

CHW

.788

OPS

◀

.716

.737

.346

OBP

◀

.319

.325

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.76

3.37

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.29

1.09

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

LAD 4 · CHW 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	4
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. OhtaniDH	.302	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
A. PagesCF	.273	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Freeman1B	.275	4	1	1	1	1	1	1
M. BettsSS	.204	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.269	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. TuckerRF	.235	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. WardLF	.237	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
D. RushingC	.269	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
A. Freeland2B	.234	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
Team		32	4	7	4	2	5	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.302

.273

.275

.204

.269

.235

.237

.269

.234

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
E. SheehanSP	5.0	4	3	3	1	8	85
J. DreyerRP	1.0	3	3	3	0	1	21
B. TreinenRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
J. HernándezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
Team	8.0	8	6	6	1	10	132

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

132

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. AntonacciLF	.278	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
M. Vargas3B	.247	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. BenintendiDH	.236	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
C. MontgomerySS	.223	4	1	2	2	1	0	2
B. MontgomeryOF	.263	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. Meidroth2B	.280	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. Gonzalez1B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. PetersCF	.294	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. RomoC	.157	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team		32	6	8	6	3	1	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. HudsonRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	9
S. NewcombRP	2.1	0	0	0	1	4	26
E. FeddeSP	2.2	3	0	0	2	4	58
G. TaylorRP	2.0	2	2	2	0	1	30
S. DominguezRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	2	33
Team	9.0	7	4	4	5	11	156

Team

LAD

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHW vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CHW vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.