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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SF
CHW

CHW

26-26

5
8
SF

SF

22-31

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
40,220 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

SF no-vig %

50.0%

open 48.9% · +1.1

+2.0-0.5SF SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL54.0%44.9%SF NO-VIG %MODEL 47.4%May 23, 4 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

CHW 5 · SF 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW1001201005
SF202040008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.7pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHW

★ best
+186DraftKings

edge +19.7pp · implied 32.9%

SF

no live price

BookCHWSFBest edge
DraftKings+186★-250+19.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 26, 26sim 99
    161
    23(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 98
    236
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 97
    43
    26(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 97
    49
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 96
    96
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 96
    129
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasSF -124

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Chicago White Sox, 8–5.

SF +1.5 cashed (CHW lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Derek Hill

Derek Hill

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt

DH

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

3

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW26-26
5
8
SF22-31
CHW26-26·SF22-31
CHW

CHW

26-26

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-55111102
SPRINT2744
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
0-44100012
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-33211121
SPRINT28.381
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-11000010
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-33001010
SPRINT26.326
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-33111011
SPRINT24.12
D. HillD. Hill★RF
1-11010010
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-33000000
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-33001001
S. AntonacciS. AntonacciLF
0-11000010
J. KelenicJ. KelenicRF
0-22000001
Team4-2929545288
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. SchultzN. Schultz★SP
4.0666111
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
0.1122101
T. DavisT. DavisRP
1.2100010
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0100020
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.0200020
Team8.01188262
SF

SF

22-31

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-44210011
SPRINT27.457
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-22200001
SPRINT26.632
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-44323110
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-44125101
SPRINT25.716
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT28.175
D. SusacD. Susac★C
0-44000001
J. RodríguezJ. Rodríguez★C
1-22010001
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44010001
V. BericotoV. Bericoto★RF
0-22000000
D. GilbertD. GilbertCF
1-22010000
W. BrennanW. BrennanLF
1-22010000
Team11-34348118226
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. RayR. Ray★SP
4.0244731
K. WinnK. WinnRP
2.0100110
M. GageM. GageRP
1.0111001
E. MillerE. MillerRP
1.0000010
C. KilianC. KilianRP
1.0000030
Team9.0455882

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • N. Schultz
    70 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      34%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      46%·90.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      32%·85.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Davis
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.3 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      46%·86.8 mph·22% whiff
    • FS
      4%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      19%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·97.5 mph·— whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      40%·84.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      27%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      13%·85.2 mph·100% whiff

SF

  • R. Ray
    92 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      49%·92.5 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      14%·78.8 mph·67% whiff
  • K. Winn
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      38%·88.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Kilian
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.9 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      19%·81.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·97.0 mph·— whiff
  • E. Miller
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      45%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      36%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.5 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      9%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Gage
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      56%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·92.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      11%·92.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

11

5

Runs

8

1

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

May 23CHWCHW9@SFSF4
May 23CHWCHW3@SFSF10
May 24CHWCHW5@SFSF8today

Season series

SF wins series 2-1

May 23CHWCHW9@SFSF4
May 23CHWCHW3@SFSF10
May 24CHWCHW5@SFSF8today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHW -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+10349%
SFSF-12455%

↘2· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 5th Inning

CHWCHW
D. Hill

D. Hill

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

N. Schultz

N. Schultz

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 1 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

SFSF
C. Schmitt

C. Schmitt

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 2 H · 7 BB

How it ended

SF beat CHW 8-5.

Win probability

SF vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+9pp→ 71% WP

Schmitt · doubled to right, Adames scored.

SFBottom 3rd Inning · 1-4
+11pp→ 90% WP

Schmitt · homered to left center (398 feet), Arraez scored.

SFBottom 5th Inning · 4-8
+12pp→ 95% WP

Devers · homered to left center (391 feet), Adames scored, Arraez scored and Schmitt scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW1001201005
SF20204000—8

Period scoring

CHW won 2 · SF won 3

1
2

Inn 1

Schmitt 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Schmitt 2

1
0

Inn 4

Acu 1

2
4

Inn 5

Montgomery 1

Devers 4

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Vargas 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHW
SF

Play-by-play · 599 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  2. T9

    Vargas struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

    +0.5pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  8. T9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Miguel Vargas

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  9. T9

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  10. T9

    Murakami struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

    +1pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  17. T9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Munetaka Murakami

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  18. T9

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  19. T9

    Meidroth struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

    +2pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  25. T9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Chase Meidroth

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  26. T9

    Kilian relieved Miller

    ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 5·SF 8

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 5·SF 8

  29. B8

    · ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

  30. B8

    Schmitt grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    CHW 5·SF 8

    −0.7pp

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

SF

Home

5

Runs

8

4

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

11

TB

21

2

HR

2

8

BB

2

8

K

6

14

LOB

14

Betting line

CHW -1.5·O/U 8·CHW +103/SF -124

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SF vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.4%

ensemble · CHW favored

  • Elo Static

    50.1%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.6%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.7%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.