MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CHW

ATL

45-23

CHW

36-31

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

14,622 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CHW no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
48.6%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.4%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.5%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.81

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+125

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

42.6%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.0pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best

-122DraftKings

edge +4.0pp · implied 51.6%

CHW

no live price

Book	ATL	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	-122★	-106	+4.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHW vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Davis MartinCHW
6.3± 3.1low
Sean BurkeCHW
5.4± 2.3low

Hits

Chase MeidrothCHW
1.2± 0.8high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.1± 0.7high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Drake BaldwinATL
2.2± 2.0high
Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.4high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
2.0± 3.2low

RBIs

Drake BaldwinATL
0.8± 0.8high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
0.8± 1.8low
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Anthony KayCHW
2.5± 3.4low
Bryce ElderATL
2.4± 2.1medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

CHW

.744

OPS

.717

.737

.320

OBP

.319

▶

.325

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.76

3.29

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.29

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

ATL 1 · CHW 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
CHW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Harris IICF	.306	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
O. Albies2B	.280	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.272	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
D. SmithDH	.291	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. DubonSS	.261	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.206	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.234	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MateoSS	.300	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. WynnsC	.100	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. WhiteCF	.205	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		35	1	7	0	0	2	7

Player

.306

.280

.272

.291

.261

.206

.234

.300

.100

.205

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SaleSP	5.2	6	2	2	1	6	103
D. FuentesRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
D. LeeRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
J. KarinchakRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	19
Team	8.0	8	2	2	1	8	138

Player

C. SaleSP

5.2

103

D. FuentesRP

1.0

D. LeeRP

0.1

J. KarinchakRP

1.0

Team

8.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Meidroth2B	.273	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukRF	.316	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. Vargas3B	.243	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. QueroC	.185	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. MontgomeryRF	.444	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
D. HillRF	.213	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
J. Gonzalez1B	.308	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. AcunaCF	.200	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
T. PetersCF	.298	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. BenintendiDH	.234	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	2	8	2	0	1	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MartinSP	6.0	6	0	0	0	6	100
S. NewcombRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	1	27
S. DominguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
B. HudsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
Team	9.0	7	1	0	2	7	157

Team

ATL

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHW vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CHW vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.