MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6CHW

LAD

44-26

CHW

37-31

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

37,882 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CHW no-vig %

43.7%

open 44.9% · -1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.0%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
45.7%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.2%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.5%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.2pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

LAD

★ best

-146DraftKings

edge +2.2pp · implied 55.7%

CHW

no live price

Book	LAD	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	-146★	+112	+2.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHW vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.3± 3.1low
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.3± 3.0low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.5± 3.7low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.4high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.8± 1.7high
Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 3.0high
Andy PagesLAD
2.0± 1.3high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
1.1± 1.6low
Miguel VargasCHW
0.8± 1.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.6± 3.1low
Anthony KayCHW
2.5± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

CHW

.784

OPS

◀

.715

.742

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.329

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.79

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.25

1.10

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

LAD 2 · CHW 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
CHW	1	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
A. CallLF	.268	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. PagesCF	.278	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
F. Freeman1B	.281	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. BettsSS	.181	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. TuckerRF	.234	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. RojasSS	.262	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.262	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Espinal3B	.255	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
C. RobinsonC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. WardLF	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Freeland2B	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	4	2	0	1	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.268

.278

.281

.181

.234

.262

.262

.255

.000

.235

.235

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. SasakiSP	4.1	7	7	7	3	4	91
B. TreinenRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	16
E. HenriquezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
J. HernándezRP	2.0	0	0	0	4	1	46
Team	8.0	10	8	8	7	7	169

Player

4.1

0.2

1.0

2.0

Team

8.0

169

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. AntonacciLF	.284	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
M. Vargas3B	.251	4	1	3	1	0	1	0
A. BenintendiDH	.235	4	1	1	1	1	1	2
C. MontgomerySS	.221	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. MontgomeryOF	.333	3	1	0	1	0	1	1
C. Meidroth2B	.282	3	1	3	2	0	1	0
J. Gonzalez1B	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. PetersCF	.298	3	1	1	2	0	1	1
D. RomoC	.163	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	8	10	8	1	7	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. KaySP	5.0	4	2	2	1	7	89
B. HudsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
T. RichardsRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	21
C. MurphyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
Team	9.0	4	2	2	1	9	131

Team

LAD

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

CHW vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.