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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CHW
CHW

CHW

26-24

9
4
SF

SF

20-31

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
37,524 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SF no-vig %

49.0%

open 48.3% · +0.8

+2.0-0.5SF SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 6.5TOTAL53.0%44.3%SF NO-VIG %MODEL 49.4%May 21, 4 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 9 · SF 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0009000009
SF0000310004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.4pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHW

★ best
-101DraftKings

edge +3.4pp · implied 47.2%

SF

no live price

BookCHWSFBest edge
DraftKings-101★-128+3.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasCHW -120

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 9–4.

CHW -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami

1B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Matt Chapman

Matt Chapman

3B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW26-24
9
4
SF20-31
CHW26-24·SF20-31
CHW

CHW

26-24

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
0-22200011
SPRINT28.175
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-33213012
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-44010011
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-55110001
SPRINT26.326
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-44101011
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-55112001
SPRINT26.632
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-33101010
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-44000001
D. HillD. Hill★RF
1-44111001
SPRINT29.294
Team5-3434958059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MartinD. Martin★SP
5.2644270
T. DavisT. DavisRP
1.1100010
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.0000120
T. RichardsT. RichardsRP
1.0000020
Team9.07443120
SF

SF

20-31

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-55111002
SPRINT27.457
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-55021001
SPRINT26.632
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-44001002
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-44000003
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT28.175
B. EldridgeB. Eldridge★DH
0-44000002
J. RodríguezJ. Rodríguez★C
1-33111010
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
1-33110000
SPRINT26.428
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-33010011
V. BericotoV. BericotoRF
0-11000001
Team7-35354740312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. McDonaldT. McDonald★SP
3.2377140
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
1.1221120
E. MillerE. MillerRP
1.0000120
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
3.0000210
Team9.0598590

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • T. Richards
    39 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      56%·92.5 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      38%·80.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      5%·83.0 mph·0% whiff

SF

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

9

Runs

4

1

Errors

2

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

May 23CHWCHW9@SFSF4today
May 23CHWCHW3@SFSF10
May 24CHWCHW5@SFSF8

Season series

CHW lead series 1-0

May 23CHWCHW9@SFSF4today
May 23CHWCHW3@SFSF10
May 24CHWCHW5@SFSF8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHW -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW-12055%
SFSF+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 4th Inning

CHWCHW
M. Murakami

M. Murakami

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 2 R · 0.833 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

SFSF
M. Chapman

M. Chapman

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

T. McDonald

T. McDonald

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHW beat SF 9-4. CHW outscored the other side 9-0 in the 4th inning.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 4th Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 56% WP

Giants · challenged (hit by pitch), call on the field was upheld: Munetaka Murakami hit by pitch. Sam Antonacci to 2nd.

CHWTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+17pp→ 85% WP

Benintendi · doubled to center, Murakami scored and Montgomery scored, Meidroth to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0009000009
SF0000310004

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · SF won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

9
0

Inn 4

Murakami 3

0
3

Inn 5

Adames 1

0
1

Inn 6

Rodr 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CHW
SF

Play-by-play · 596 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 9·SF 4

  2. B9

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  3. B9

    Arraez flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  5. B9

    Trevor Richards pitches to Luis Arraez

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  6. B9

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  7. B9

    Adames struck out looking.

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  13. B9

    Trevor Richards pitches to Willy Adames

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  14. B9

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  15. B9

    Harrison Bader challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Harrison Bader called out on strikes.

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  20. B9

    Trevor Richards pitches to Harrison Bader

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  21. B9

    Richards relieved Eisert

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHW 9·SF 4

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHW 9·SF 4

  24. T9

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  25. T9

    Benintendi struck out looking.

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 9·SF 4

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

SF

Home

9

Runs

4

5

Hits

7

1

Errors

2

7

TB

9

0

HR

0

5

BB

3

9

K

12

13

LOB

18

Betting line

CHW -1.5·O/U 7.5·CHW -120/SF +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.19

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-107

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

49.5%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

SF vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.2%

ensemble · CHW favored

  • Elo Static

    51.5%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.7%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.0%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 100
    43
    26(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 98
    1610
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 98
    161
    23(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 97
    45
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 97
    236
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 97
    289
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs