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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4CHW
MIN

MIN

27-30

2
6
CHW

CHW

29-27

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
14,194 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CHW no-vig %

53.3%

open 50.0% · +3.3

+2.0-2.0CHW SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL57.3%46.0%CHW NO-VIG %MODEL 55.9%May 27, 4 PMMay 28, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

MIN 2 · CHW 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHW +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0000101002
CHW104100006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.9pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best
+144DraftKings

edge +4.9pp · implied 39.2%

CHW

no live price

BookMINCHWBest edge
DraftKings+144★-175+4.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 26, 26sim 98
    95
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 96
    236
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 96
    73
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 95
    237
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 95
    165
    24(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 94
    263
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+6.12

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-110

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

56.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, May 28·Final/SeriesCHW win series 3-1/VegasCHW -175

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Minnesota Twins, 6–2.

CHW -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Tristan Gray

Tristan Gray

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Tristan Peters

Tristan Peters

CF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN27-30
2
6
CHW29-27
MIN27-30·CHW29-27
MIN

MIN

27-30

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-33010012
SPRINT29.597
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-44000000
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-44000001
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-44000001
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-44110002
SPRINT25.18
O. ArciaO. Arcia★SS
0-33100011
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
1-33011000
SPRINT24.22
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT26.428
R. KreidlerR. Kreidler★CF
0-33001001
Team5-3232252028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. Woods RichardsonS. Woods Richardson★SP
2.2555340
A. MorrisA. MorrisRP
1.1210030
T. AdamsT. AdamsRP
1.0000010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000000
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0000100
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
1.0100020
Team8.08654100
CHW

CHW

29-27

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.175
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-22111021
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-33100012
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
2-44121001
SPRINT26.326
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-33100011
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
3-44131000
SPRINT28.586
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
1-44013001
SPRINT26.735
RR. Nishida★OF
0-22000000
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-33000002
D. HillD. HillRF
0-22000001
Team8-31316860410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MartinD. Martin★SP
6.0211250
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0111000
T. DavisT. DavisRP
1.0100020
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0100010
Team9.0522280

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • S. Woods Richardson
    67 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      55%·93.4 mph·11% whiff
    • FS
      18%·87.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      15%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      12%·77.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Morris
    29 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      48%·96.3 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      35%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·94.5 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      18%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Banda
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      43%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Adams
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      33%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • ST
      57%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      43%·92.2 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • D. Martin
    84 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      29%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      20%·91.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.9 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      17%·82.3 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      71%·98.3 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      21%·83.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Davis
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      69%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      31%·87.2 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

8

2

Runs

6

1

Errors

1

Current series

CHW win series 3-1

May 25MINMIN1@CHWCHW3
May 26MINMIN5@CHWCHW3
May 27MINMIN2@CHWCHW15
May 28MINMIN2@CHWCHW6today

Season series

CHW lead series 3-1

May 25MINMIN1@CHWCHW3
May 26MINMIN5@CHWCHW3
May 27MINMIN2@CHWCHW15
May 28MINMIN2@CHWCHW6today
Jun 1CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Jun 2CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Jun 3CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Aug 29CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Aug 29CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Aug 30CHWCHW@MINMINupcoming
Sep 4MINMIN@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 5MINMIN@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 6MINMIN@CHWCHWupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHW -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+14441%
CHWCHW-17564%

↘16· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

MINMIN
T. Gray

T. Gray

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

S. Woods Richardson

S. Woods Richardson

SP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

CHWCHW
T. Peters

T. Peters

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHW beat MIN 6-2.

Win probability

CHW vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 73% WP

Montgomery · singled to center, Vargas scored.

CHWBottom 3rd Inning · 0-5
+12pp→ 95% WP

Grichuk · doubled to right, Montgomery scored, Peters scored and Meidroth scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0000101002
CHW10410000—6

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · CHW won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Montgomery 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
4

Inn 3

Grichuk 3

0
1

Inn 4

Murakami 1

1
0

Inn 5

Kreidler 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Caratini 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIN
CHW

Play-by-play · 534 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  2. T9

    Gray flied out to left.

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  4. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Tristan Gray

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  5. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  6. T9

    Caratini singled to right.

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  10. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Victor Caratini

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  11. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  12. T9

    Arcia struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  19. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Orlando Arcia

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  20. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  21. T9

    Bell flied out to left.

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

    +0.8pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  26. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Josh Bell

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  27. T9

    Taylor relieved Davis

    ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIN 2·CHW 6

  30. B8

    · ·

    MIN 2·CHW 6

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

2

Runs

6

5

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

7

TB

11

0

HR

0

2

BB

4

8

K

10

13

LOB

12

Betting line

CHW -1.5·O/U 8·MIN +144/CHW -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CHW vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.0%

ensemble · CHW favored

  • Elo Static

    56.3%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.8%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.3%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175