Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 28, 2026

FINAL+5PIT

CIN

39-43

PIT

42-42

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

24,023 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.5 · -1.0

PIT no-vig %

55.1%

open 54.2% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
59.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.4%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.1%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.87

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+28.6pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

CIN

★ best

+680DraftKings

edge +28.6pp · implied 12.0%

PIT

no live price

Book	CIN	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	+680★	-1460	+28.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.4± 2.5high

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.4± 0.7high
Brandon LowePIT
1.3± 1.2high
Jake MangumPIT
1.3± 0.7high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.3± 2.1high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.1± 1.5high
Jose TrevinoCIN
0.6± 1.1high
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Mitch KellerPIT
3.3± 2.2high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

PIT

.705

OPS

.720

▶

.754

.309

OBP

.318

▶

.336

4.11

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.14

4.43

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.26

1.42

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.32

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

CIN 4 · PIT 9 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	4
PIT	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	4	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.268	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
S. Stewart1B	.254	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	.241	3	0	1	2	0	1	0
E. SuarezDH	.208	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Steer1B	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. MarteRF	.191	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
T. StephensonC	.224	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
T. FriedlCF	.175	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Arroyo2B	.279	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
N. LoweDH	.253	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	8	4	0	4	6

Player

.268

.254

.241

.208

.238

.191

.224

.175

.279

.253

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SingerSP	4.1	9	5	5	0	6	98
J. GarciaRP	1.1	0	0	0	3	2	30
Z. McCambleyRP	0.1	0	0	0	3	0	15
B. BurkeRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	9
P. JohnsonRP	0.2	2	4	4	2	2	27
Team	8.0	11	9	9	8	11	179

Player

4.1

1.1

0.1

1.1

0.2

Team

8.0

179

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GriffinSS	.273	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.243	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
B. ReynoldsLF	.286	3	1	0	0	0	2	1
N. Gonzales3B	.297	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
R. O'HearnRF	.286	5	3	3	4	2	0	1
E. ValdezRF	.262	4	2	3	2	1	1	0
T. CallihanLF	.259	4	1	2	3	1	1	1
J. MangumCF	.297	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
H. DavisC	.149	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. TrioloSS	.238	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. CookCF	.154	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	9	11	9	4	8	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellerSP	6.0	5	4	3	1	4	79
C. MlodzinskiRP	2.0	3	0	0	1	1	42
D. SantanaRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	23
Team	9.0	8	4	3	4	6	144

Team

CIN

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.