Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 22, 2026

FINAL+2CIN

CIN

47-54

SEA

51-52

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

38,236 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

SEA no-vig %

58.4%

open 58.3% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.7%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.2%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.1pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

CIN

no live price

SEA

★ best

-119DraftKings

edge +7.1pp · implied 51.0%

Book	CIN	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	-109	-119★	+7.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high
Jhonny PeredaSEA
1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Cole YoungSEA
2.0± 1.7high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Cal RaleighSEA
0.7± 1.0high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

SEA

.707

OPS

◀

.720

.687

.310

OBP

.318

.310

4.17

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.98

4.43

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.78

1.41

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.19

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 5 · SEA 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	0	5
SEA	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Cincinnati RedsSeattle Mariners

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.276	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. Stewart1B	.249	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
J. BledayLF	.237	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
S. Steer1B	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. LoweDH	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. StephensonC	.244	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	.267	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
E. Arroyo2B	.254	3	1	2	0	0	1	1
K. Hayes3B	.146	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		35	5	8	5	2	2	5

Player

.276

.249

.237

.242

.244

.244

.267

.254

.146

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SingerSP	6.2	6	3	3	1	6	101
B. BurkeRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	17
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	20
Team	9.0	7	3	3	1	6	138

Player

B. SingerSP

6.2

101

B. BurkeRP

1.1

E. PaganRP

1.0

Team

9.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.251	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. RodriguezCF	.258	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. CanzoneDH	.257	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. ArozarenaLF	.281	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Naylor1B	.261	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
C. RaleighC	.163	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
L. RaleyRF	.230	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
We. Wilson3B	.214	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. EmersonSS	.189	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	7	3	0	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. HancockSP	6.0	5	2	2	1	3	95
E. BazardoRP	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	16
C. WilcoxRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	24
Team	9.0	8	5	5	2	5	135

Team

CIN

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

SEA vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.