Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at CIN?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 8, 2026

FINAL+6CIN

PHI

51-42

511

CIN

42-49

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

33,089 attended

Line movement

34 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CIN no-vig %

56.4%

open 56.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

34.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
39.9%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.6%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.2%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.6%

Close no-vig

43.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at CIN?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CIN vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

137

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
1.2± 1.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
2.0± 2.0low
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.4high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

CIN

.705

OPS

.719

.708

.304

OBP

.318

▶

.310

4.38

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

4.22

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.41

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.41

10.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

PHI 5 · CIN 11 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	5
CIN	0	0	2	5	0	4	0	0	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Philadelphia PhilliesCincinnati Reds

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Harper1B	.264	3	1	0	0	0	2	0
K. SchwarberDH	.254	4	1	1	1	1	1	2
B. MarshLF	.305	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. Stott2B	.245	3	0	0	1	0	1	1
A. Bohm3B	.222	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.211	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.262	3	1	2	1	0	1	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.202	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
E. SosaLF	.221	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. MarchanC	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	8	4	2	8	7

Player

.264

.254

.305

.245

.222

.211

.262

.202

.221

.111

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. RangelRP	3.1	3	3	3	3	5	69
T. BanksRP	0.1	4	4	4	0	0	17
M. LazarRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	19
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	2	4	4	3	2	35
B. KellerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	14
T. MayzaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	21
Team	8.0	11	11	11	7	10	175

Player

3.1

0.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

175

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.274	3	3	2	2	1	2	0
S. Stewart1B	.256	4	2	2	3	2	1	0
J. BledayLF	.239	4	2	2	2	1	1	0
E. SuarezDH	.204	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
S. Steer1B	.242	4	1	2	0	0	1	2
N. MarteRF	.205	5	1	2	4	1	0	2
J. TrevinoC	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Arroyo2B	.247	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. FriedlCF	.171	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team		35	11	11	11	5	7	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BurnsSP	5.0	3	3	3	6	2	106
B. BurkeRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	26
C. FergusonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	12
R. LowderSP	2.0	3	1	1	0	2	36
Team	9.0	8	5	5	8	7	180

Team

PHI

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CIN vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.