Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+3BAL

BAL

42-48

CIN

40-48

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

33,047 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CIN no-vig %

53.1%

open 55.1% · -2.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
54.4%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.2%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.5%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

BAL

no live price

CIN

no live price

Book	BAL	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+105	-126	+1.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CIN vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.0high

Hits

Nathaniel LoweCIN
1.2± 1.2high
Jackson HollidayBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.1± 3.5low
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.9low
Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 3.0medium
Kyle BradishBAL
2.5± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

CIN

.711

OPS

.719

.708

.320

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.53

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.41

1.35

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.41

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 8 · CIN 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	3	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	8
CIN	1	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.226	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
A. RutschmanC	.256	5	1	2	2	0	0	1
T. WardLF	.250	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.254	3	1	3	1	0	2	0
S. BasalloC	.257	4	1	1	3	1	1	2
C. CowserCF	.224	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
L. TaverasCF	.244	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. Holliday2B	.187	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
B. Alexander3B	.302	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
Team		36	8	10	8	1	7	9

Player

.226

.256

.250

.254

.257

.224

.244

.187

.302

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. YoungSP	5.0	8	4	4	3	5	102
G. WolframRP	1.0	0	1	1	1	0	8
Y. CanoRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	0	19
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
T. WellsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	16
Team	9.0	11	5	5	6	6	156

Player

B. YoungSP

5.0

102

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

156

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.276	4	0	2	1	0	1	1
S. Stewart1B	.254	4	2	1	0	0	1	0
J. BledayLF	.237	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
E. SuarezDH	.208	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.247	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
S. Steer1B	.237	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. TrevinoC	.267	4	1	3	1	0	0	0
T. FriedlCF	.181	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.192	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
Team		35	5	11	5	0	6	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. GreeneSP	3.1	7	8	8	4	7	89
S. MollRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	14
J. GarciaRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	22
R. LowderSP	3.0	2	0	0	3	0	40
Team	9.0	10	8	8	7	9	165

Team

BAL

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

CIN vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.