Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 30, 2026

FINAL+1CIN

PIT

55-55

CIN

51-57

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

25,532 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 10.0 · -0.5

CIN no-vig %

49.0%

open 48.3% · +0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.5%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
49.6%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.7%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.9%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.2pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

PIT

★ best

-105DraftKings

edge +2.2pp · implied 48.1%

CIN

no live price

Book	PIT	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-105★	-124	+2.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CIN vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high

Hits

Brandon LowePIT
1.4± 1.1high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.4± 1.9high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.6± 0.8high
Jose TrevinoCIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

CIN

.748

OPS

◀

.720

.707

.334

OBP

◀

.318

.310

5.08

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.17

4.30

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.43

1.33

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.41

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

PIT 2 · CIN 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2
CIN	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.301	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.253	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. ValdezRF	.277	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. O'HearnRF	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Gonzales3B	.316	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
E. RodriguezC	.261	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. GonzalezSS	.219	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. GarciaRF	.190	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. CookCF	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.244	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		33	2	7	2	1	2	10

Player

.301

.253

.267

.277

.270

.316

.261

.219

.190

.200

.244

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. RamirezRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	4	39
H. BarcoRP	3.0	5	2	2	3	2	72
N. MurdockSP	2.0	2	0	0	3	3	45
M. MontgomeryRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	7
G. SotoRP	0.2	1	1	1	2	1	18
Team	8.2	9	3	3	9	12	181

Player

2.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.2

Team

8.2

181

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.279	4	2	3	1	0	1	0
S. Stewart1B	.254	3	0	1	1	0	2	2
J. BledayLF	.228	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
T. StephensonC	.251	2	0	1	0	0	3	1
N. LoweDH	.255	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
E. SuarezDH	.202	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. MyersCF	.276	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.186	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. McLain2B	.191	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
Team		32	3	9	3	0	9	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LowderSP	6.0	5	2	2	0	5	90
B. BurkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	28
T. AntoneRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	22
E. PaganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	10	156

Team

PIT

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

CIN vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.