Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 24, 2026

FINAL+2CIN

CIN

48-54

STL

52-51

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

29,900 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

STL no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.0%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
59.7%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.9%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.8%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.3pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

CIN

no live price

STL

★ best

-150DraftKings

edge +2.3pp · implied 57.3%

Book	CIN	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	+124	-150★	+2.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high
Brady SingerCIN
5.0± 1.1high

Hits

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.3± 1.1high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.2± 3.5high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 1.9high
Jose TrevinoCIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

STL

.708

OPS

◀

.720

.695

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.315

4.16

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.39

4.45

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.16

1.41

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.34

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 4 · STL 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	1	4
STL	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.276	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
S. Stewart1B	.251	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
J. BledayLF	.236	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
E. SuarezDH	.213	4	1	2	2	1	1	1
N. LoweDH	.248	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
S. Steer1B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. StephensonC	.249	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Arroyo2B	.254	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.146	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	4	11	4	1	3	11

Player

.276

.251

.236

.213

.248

.240

.249

.259

.254

.146

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LowderSP	5.0	1	2	2	2	4	76
C. FergusonRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	16
J. GarciaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
B. BurkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
T. AntoneRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	9.0	2	2	2	3	9	131

Player

5.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.258	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. WalkerRF	.288	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.281	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. HerreraDH	.239	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
L. NootbaarLF	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. WinnSS	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. ChurchCF	.228	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. Jordan3B	.245	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.184	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. VelazquezLF	.215	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.257	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.208	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	2	2	2	0	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MaySP	6.0	7	1	1	1	8	89
G. SorianoRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	15
R. StanekRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
L. GastelumRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	20
Team	9.0	11	4	4	3	11	140

Team

CIN

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

STL vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.