Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 9, 2026

FINAL+1PHI

PHI

52-42

CIN

42-50

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

19,777 attended

Line movement

39 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

CIN no-vig %

38.5%

open 38.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

30.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
38.8%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.9%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.1%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

137

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
1.2± 1.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
2.0± 2.0low
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.4high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

CIN

.705

OPS

.719

.708

.304

OBP

.318

▶

.310

4.38

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

4.22

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.41

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.41

10.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 1 · CIN 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.239	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. SchwarberDH	.254	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
B. Harper1B	.261	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. MarshLF	.307	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
A. Bohm3B	.220	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Stott2B	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.203	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.199	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.263	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. HillRF	.317	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	5	1	0	1	7

Player

.239

.254

.261

.307

.220

.245

.203

.199

.263

.317

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LuzardoSP	7.0	2	0	0	2	11	96
J. BowlanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
J. DuranRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	21
Team	9.0	3	0	0	2	14	129

Player

J. LuzardoSP

7.0

J. BowlanRP

1.0

J. DuranRP

1.0

Team

9.0

129

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. Stewart1B	.254	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BledayLF	.239	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. Steer1B	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. SuarezDH	.201	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
T. StephensonC	.234	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. Arroyo2B	.239	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. FriedlCF	.174	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		30	0	3	0	0	2	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SingerSP	7.1	4	1	1	1	5	89
S. MollRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	11
T. AntoneRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15
Team	9.0	5	1	1	1	7	115

Team

PHI

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.