Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at CIN?

The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 5, 2026

FINAL+1CIN

BAL

42-49

CIN

41-48

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

17,601 attended

Line movement

44 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

CIN no-vig %

48.3%

open 50.4% · -2.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
55.5%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.4%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.3%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.17

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-112

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at CIN?: The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CIN vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.4± 2.5high
Kyle BradishBAL
5.4± 3.0high

Hits

Jackson HollidayBAL
1.2± 1.2high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.3low
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.2± 3.4low
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.0± 1.9high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.9low
Sal StewartCIN
1.1± 1.5high
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 3.0medium
Kyle BradishBAL
2.4± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

CIN

.712

OPS

.720

.705

.320

OBP

◀

.318

.309

4.57

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

4.21

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.43

1.34

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.42

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

BAL 2 · CIN 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2
CIN	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.223	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. RutschmanC	.254	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. WardLF	.253	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.251	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mayo3B	.190	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.184	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. TaverasCF	.241	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. Jackson2B	.248	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Alexander3B	.310	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
S. BasalloC	.256	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. BeaversRF	.222	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Holliday2B	.187	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		33	2	7	2	0	4	7

Player

.223

.254

.253

.251

.190

.184

.241

.248

.310

.256

.222

.187

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BradishSP	7.2	5	3	3	1	5	106
R. GarciaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	8.0	5	3	3	1	5	112

Player

K. BradishSP

7.2

106

R. GarciaRP

0.1

Team

8.0

112

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.272	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. Stewart1B	.254	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. SuarezDH	.206	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
S. Steer1B	.238	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. StephensonC	.233	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
N. MarteRF	.196	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. FriedlCF	.178	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Arroyo2B	.247	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		29	3	5	3	1	1	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LodoloSP	6.0	6	1	1	2	4	97
B. BurkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
T. AntoneRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
E. PaganRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	32
Team	9.0	7	2	2	4	7	157

Team

BAL

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CIN vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.