Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at CIN?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 10, 2026

FINAL+4CIN

CHC

52-42

CIN

43-50

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

30,878 attended

Line movement

47 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

CIN no-vig %

47.6%

open 47.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

26.8%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
37.4%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
33.6%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-121

Close price

-121

Open no-vig

52.4%

Close no-vig

52.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at CIN?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CIN vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.4± 2.3high

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.3high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
1.2± 1.2high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 3.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.7high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Kevin GausmanCHC
3.1± 2.1high
David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

CIN

.749

OPS

◀

.719

.708

.338

OBP

◀

.318

.310

5.09

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

4.09

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.41

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.41

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CHC 0 · CIN 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.293	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. Bregman3B	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. Busch1B	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. SuzukiRF	.270	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
I. HappLF	.221	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
N. Hoerner2B	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. ConfortoDH	.243	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. KellyC	.274	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.213	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		31	0	4	0	0	1	16

Player

.293

.235

.230

.270

.221

.238

.243

.274

.213

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ImanagaSP	5.0	7	1	1	1	5	102
T. ThorntonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	7
J. WoodfordRP	2.0	5	3	3	0	3	43
Team	8.0	13	4	4	1	8	152

Player

S. ImanagaSP

5.0

102

T. ThorntonRP

1.0

J. WoodfordRP

2.0

Team

8.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.272	5	2	2	1	1	0	0
S. Stewart1B	.257	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
S. Steer1B	.247	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	.240	3	1	1	2	1	1	1
E. SuarezDH	.202	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
T. StephensonC	.239	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
N. MarteRF	.195	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Arroyo2B	.250	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
K. Hayes3B	.137	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. FriedlCF	.173	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	4	13	4	2	1	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. GreeneSP	7.0	3	0	0	1	12	93
B. BurkeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
Team	9.0	4	0	0	1	16	120

Team

CHC

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CIN vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.